Jai Bajrang Bali! Like a late swinging ball, a new slogan has sprung on Karnataka’s pre-poll landscape just as campaigning was winding down to its last gasps. Prime Minister Narendra Modi lost no time in adding this rousing Hindi/Hindu call to his usual signoff at the mike, “Bharat Mata Ki Jai!”, after the Congress provided it to him on a platter via their manifesto. Will it hit the wickets? Everyone’s watching the slow-motion replays with sudden interest.
Ever since the word got out about the Congress to promise to ban the Bajrang Dal along with the PFI if it comes to power, and state-incharge Randeep Singh Surjewala reaffirmed the intent through a late-night tweet, several state-level leaders have been scratching their heads on how this came about. A top Congress leader, in fact, claimed the ban idea was inserted into the manifesto without “due process”—that is, consultation— at a time when most of them were busy campaigning.
No one would disagree, though, that the Congress never misses the chance to bowl a loose ball, and the Prime Minister is not one who’s prone to let go of a full toss that can be hit for a six. Just a week short of voting, the BJP party office, that had nothing better than the woolly promise of a ‘double engine sarkar’ to hold out to the populace, was brimming over with glee at finding a new issue to beat the drum with. One right up their alley.
The party’s bête noire No. 1, Siddaramaiah, sitting between a flute-playing Krishna and a Buddha in abhaya mudra, looked seriously baffled. He was just about to take off to his chosen battle arena, Varuna in Mysore district, from Bengaluru to round off his campaign. The Congress has of late been trying to shed the image of being too much on the other side of Hindutva—its leaders are now to be found regularly chanting ‘Vande Mataram’, giving its old ‘Jai Hind’ a go-by. Now Siddaramaiah may be wondering if they have to bring out the Hanuman Chalisa as well—calling upon the son of the Wind God to send some life-saving elixir, just in case.
In Old Mysore—87 seats, inclusive of 28 of Bengaluru City—the Bajrang Dal strain of Hindutva warriors are not that active or well-spreadout as they are in coastal Karnataka. The latter is an old saffron laboratory that may have been a wee short of adrenaline, so that’s where it can make a difference. In private, Congress leaders are claiming the faux pas has come too late in the day for the BJP to ‘build a narrative’ and book profits, so to speak. Not the way the ‘Chowkidar’ blooper panned out in 2019.
Congress calculations aside, the one thing more salient than Hindutva in Karnataka is caste, and politics around that theme has picked up as well. It’s a none-too-quiet process of democratisation. The BJP’s wooing of the more oppressed ‘SC-Left’— mainly artisanal groups like the Madigas among the state’s 17.5 per cent Scheduled Castes—being a case in point. The ‘left-hand’ Scheduled Castes, comprising 20 communities and accounting for roughly 33 per cent of Karnataka’s Dalit spectrum, were given an internal reservation leg-up of 6.5 per cent by the Bommai Government.
Photo finish in Bengaluru, going gets tough for Siddu in Varuna
Modi-Shah has been reaching out to their mutts and community heads for months now. Though the Congress does have leaders like K.H. Muniyappa from the SC-Left side, the SC-Right communities, mostly engaged in agricultural activities, are seen to have benefited more from Congress's rule. Mallikarjun Kharge, the party president, is himself from the SC-Right.
However, those who benefited the most from the old reservation formula—Banjaras and Bhovis—had shifted to the BJP from the Congress, since 2019. And the Banjaras, especially, are cut up about being pushed into a narrower 4.5 per cent quota for ‘touchables’. In strategically stitching up a social coalition of castes who were left under-represented earlier, the BJP under Modi- Shah have leaned towards the more numerous SC-Left. However, in the Old Mysore region, they are numerically strong in less than half a dozen constituencies.
In Varuna, where Siddaramaiah is contesting against the BJP’s V Somanna, a Lingayat, he’s up against such a micro-social alliance. It’s a tough fight for the former CM, not because Amit Shah has dangled the promise of a ‘big post’ for his opponent, but because of the Lingayat-SC (Left) consolidation being attempted against him. The Lingayats, looking quite charged up after a colourful Shah-BSY rally, make up about 55,000 here, and Dalits add another 50,000-odd. Even if they don’t all line up to vote on May 10, it’s a formidable bloc.
The young Lingayat girl who quizzically watched us chat up villagers at a fair price shop in rural Varuna from behind the small gate of her house, and then butted in to say she was “Siddaramaiah fan”, or the old man who said some from the community may “vote Sidda” as a return gift for old favours, are exceptions. Even Siddaramaiah says he never expects more than 10 per cent breakaway Lingayat votes. He would rather add up the rest of Varuna— 32,000 of his own Kuruba community, 20,000 Uparas, 25,000 STs, part of the 12,000 Vokkaligas, SC-Right and other micro communities.
The Muslims comprise a minuscule 6,000 votes. He also adds his son’s popularity in the constituency as a plus factor. The BJP game plan is to split the SC/STs and Vokkaliga votes as much as possible in its favour—defeating its bête noire seems to be the saffron party’s single-point agenda. Almost like how the BJP fought the Bengal election as if Nandigram, the seat from where Mamata Banerjee contested, was a microcosm of the whole election.
Likewise, G Parameshwar, former Congress deputy CM, is having a tough time in Koratagere. His own Kessatah community (SC-Right) has only 10,000 votes. He’s appealing to everyone—including, according to the BJP, the SDPI—to see him through. Quite surprisingly, Vokkaliga votes in the Old Mysore region, expected to be split between the JD-S/Gowda family and the DK Shivakumar-led Congress, are mobile. The BJP is chipping away at the youth vote. Vokkaliga anger, which benefited the JD-S last time, seems absent this time. Plus, the BJP has put up strong candidates in each and every constituency, without any covert adjustment.
Locals are speaking of a 30,000-40,000 vote erosion for the JD-S. As a result, it looks a bit iffy in one of its older strongholds. It won all 7 seats in Mandya district in 2018. This time, an independent candidate may sail through in Mandya urban, and a Raithya Sangha candidate in Melukote , indicating a goof-up in ticket distribution. Independent MP Sumalatha, late cine legend Ambarish’s wife, who has considerable clout in the area, has thrown her weight behind the BJP too.
Expect nail-biting counting on May 13. In Tumkuru (11 seats), Kolar (6) and Ramnagara (4), however, the Congress and JD-S seem evenly poised. In Hassan (7) and Chikkaballapur (4), the latter has a clear edge. In Chamarajanagar, the Congress may do better, as in Bengaluru Rural.
In Channapatna, the BJP’s Yogeshwar is giving JD-S chief HD Kumaraswamy a tough fight. It’s as if the BJP has taken it upon itself to give older generation Kannada leaders a tough time. As for Bengaluru City, with 28 seats, it’s a photofinish between the BJP and the Congress. Only May 13 will reveal who will be the real Bajrang Bali.