BENGALURU: With just 10 days to go for the Assembly elections in Karnataka, campaigning has hit a feverish pitch. Top leaders are indulging in no-holds-barred personal attacks dragging the political discourse to a new low and shifting the focus away from local issues.
Congress’ folly in launching a personal diatribe against Prime Minister Narendra Modi could help the BJP, which was in a slightly disadvantageous position, to turn the tide in its favour.
AICC president M Mallikarjun Kharge’s remarks likening Modi to a “poisonous snake” not only handed over a potent issue to the BJP, but it was also a deviation from the party’s strategy to keep the focus on local issues.
Its strategy was not to let the BJP make it a Modi vs Congress fight, but consistently attack the State Government over its failures, 40 per cent corruption, alleged irregularities in recruitment in various departments, as well as take advantage of the anti-incumbency factor against the State Government.
That helped Congress gain an initial advantage by setting a narrative and creating a perception that it was difficult for the BJP to buck the trend to return to power in the state. The exodus of many Lingayat leaders, who joined its ranks, also gave Congress the confidence to woo the majority community that has backed BJP in the last several polls.
But now, as the electioneering reaches a crescendo, and as Modi launches his blitzkrieg campaign, the narrative is taking a different turn. As anticipated, it was well reflected in Modi’s first rally in Bidar district in Kalyan Karnataka region. On the AICC president’s home turf, the PM went hammer-and-tongs and turned the entire narrative around Congress’ diatribe against him.
Modi gleefully grabbed the opportunity handed over to him by the crude ways of Congress’ expression of its political opposition. Though Congress did attempt to control the damage, that hardly had any impact. They might be twiddling their thumbs at the faux pas that handed over an issue to the BJP at the right time in the last leg of campaigning.
With just around eight days left for the campaigning to end, any indiscretion by Congress leaders will further help BJP. They would do well by sticking to their plan of focusing on the state government’s failures and its “poll guarantees”.
Countering BJP’s ‘carpet bombing’ style of campaigning is a challenge, but Congress seems to have worked out a good strategy of relying more on its local leaders, with a few rallies by its star campaigners Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi.
On its part, the BJP is banking heavily on the Modi factor to turn the tide and hoping that social engineering of increasing reservation for the Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST) yields electoral dividends.
It also hopes that dropping a large number of sitting legislators will help beat anti-incumbency. Top leaders in the BJP feel that it is not anti-incumbency, but pro-incumbency that will work in its favour like in the case of Uttar Pradesh and Kerala.
That, however, does not look like an easy task with Congress going to the polls as one cohesive unit as it managed to overcome the challenges arising out of ticket distribution without much difficulty.
The party’s central leadership also appears to have been fairly successful in ensuring that the chief ministerial ambitions of leaders do not act as a drag on the party’s ambition to return to power in Karnataka.
At this juncture, the Janata Dal (Secular) also looks to be confident about its performance. They seem to be more confident than others. Unlike the national parties, which have to get a full majority to come to power, the regional party is yet again likely to stand the best chance in the case of a fractured verdict.
The current election scenario in Karnataka resembles a high-intensity football game that could go any which way. The BJP is hoping to make the most of the Congress’ mistake to strike a goal. It remains to be seen how Congress deals with the last-minute challenge to retain its slight edge over the others.
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