THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Five years cannot be termed an era in politics. But what Kerala politics underwent from 2019 to 2024 will be a curious case study for political pundits. Compared with the previous Lok Sabha polls, besides political affiliations, voter preferences, winning patterns, burning issues and possible consolidations have drastically changed in the state.
There were two factors that played a key role in 2019 – the Sabarimala controversy and the impression that Rahul Gandhi may become the next prime minister. The CPM government’s decision to implement the Supreme Court verdict on women’s entry to the Sabarimala shrine backfired.
The Congress and the BJP tried to cash in on the heavy anti-Left sentiment over its perceived posturing against Hindu traditions. Though the Sangh Parivar went at it hammer and tongs, it was the UDF that eventually benefitted – from two different consolidations. One, a majority of ‘neutral’ Hindu votes swayed in favour of the UDF.
Two, the minorities, apparently worried over a pro-BJP consolidation, also voted en masse for the UDF. That’s one part of the double whammy the LDF suffered. The surprise candidature of Rahul Gandhi, propped up as the Congress’s prime ministerial face, from Wayanad constituency, too, played a major role in polarising votes in favour of the UDF.
A buzz that the Congress could return to power at the Centre made things easy for the UDF. Despite having won plaudits for its handling of the 2018 floods, the LDF recorded an abysmal election tally of just one seat, while the UDF romped home with the remaining 19. The BJP drew a blank despite all the din it made. Fast-forward to 2024. We have a drastically altered political scenario.
A flux. For the first time in four decades, the state witnessed an incumbent government retaining power. Despite the pandemic crisis and ‘diplomatic’ gold smuggling saga, the LDF, which had won 91 seats in 2016, returned to the helm with 99 seats in 2021. However, three years down, the LDF isn’t sitting pretty. The antiincumbency factor against the Left government has grown manifold in 2024.
Financial crisis. Delay in disbursal of social pensions. Price hikes. Corruption charges. The Pinarayi Vijayan government is in a spot. Allegations of scams, especially related to cooperative banks, and a central probe into the IT firm run by the chief minister’s daughter, Veena, are also bound to have their repercussions. However, none of these factors could lead to a repeat of 2019.
Both, the LDF and UDF, have set their eyes on minority votes over a slew of emotive issues such as the Citizenship Amendment Act, Palestine solidarity, and the Manipur ethnic violence. The BJP, meanwhile, is banking on ‘Modi Ki Guarantee’. The ‘Modi factor’ has been modified this time. While ‘Swamiye Saranamayappa’ was the line Modi roared in 2019, this time, it’s all about the ‘guarantee’ he holds out.
According to some analysts, this tom-tomming is creating ripples. The BJP has also succeeded in luring some senior Congress faces to its camp. A significant change in BJP’s vote share too lends high hopes to the saffron party. “In a way, the Modi scare among the Left voters played a major role in many voters going with the UDF in 2019,” observes a Left leader.
“This scare seems to be abating now. Instead, it’s a reverse consolidation, especially after the CAA and other minority-related issues. One visible change could be a dip in polling percentage.” Politically, the Left seems to be in a better position, after engineering a major split in the Kerala Congress (M), by luring the regionally powerful Jose K Mani faction.
The entry of KC(M) has not only added one more MP to the Left camp, but also brought in a mass base of Christian votes. This places the Left in a better position in central Kerala. With KC(M) moving to the Left fold, the UDF’s political strength has weakened over the years in many parts of the state. Leadership deficit – or chaos – is another big worry for the front. In 2019, the Congress had the late stalwart Oommen Chandy and the then leader of opposition Ramesh Chennithala leading the fight.
Analysts believe the current leadership pales in front of the LDF’s array of leaders, especially the supremo — Pinarayi Vijayan. A similar leadership vacuum can be seen in the IUML, too, after the demise of Sayed Hyderali Shihab Thangal. Though the Left camp also lost veterans such as Kodiyeri Balakrishnan and Kanam Rajendran recently, according to analysts, Pinarayi still holds the fort.
All that said, the “minority consolidation” factor is going to be crucial, says political commentator J Prabhash. “The impression that there is scope for a UPA government at the Centre, as in 2019, is absent now,” he adds. “How the CAA issue plays out is going to prove significant. This factor could also be neutralised, and the anti-incumbency against the state government may prevail.” Prabhash reiterates that there “no longer a general impression of a Congress comeback at the Centre”. He, however, believes the UDF could emerge as a better bet for anti-BJP voters. “Also,” he adds,
“if the Left pushes minority appeasement beyond a point, it could boomerang. After all, the majority of its cadres belong to the Hindu community, and the Christian community is still ambiguous about the Left.” Well, it’s certain that political pundits are going to be precariously perched with their predictions this season.
