CHENNAI/COIMBATORE: The political bonhomie between the AIADMK and the BJP, nearly two years after they parted ways, adds a riveting twist to the 2026 Tamil Nadu Assembly elections.
After wordy duels and bluster by the leadership of both the parties, a truce has been called with an eye on political expediency after severe electoral drubbings, but can the old bloc script new success to stop the DMK juggernaut? TNIE’s ground report shows that the saffron party may be celebrating the deal as its first victory, but for AIADMK, it’s a story in the making.
The poll pact has spawned several questions. For the DMK alliance, which won both the 2021 Assembly election and the 2024 Lok Sabha poll, will it be a tougher fight in 2026? Will there be any change in the contours of the alliances? Is the alliance with BJP still seen as an “albatross around AIADMK’s neck”? Will a majority of minority voters bid goodbye to MGR’s party forever?
When TNIE reached out to AIADMK leaders, workers and supporters for their take on the alliance and its implications for the party, the responses were mixed.
While a few leaders were unhappy with the revival of the alliance and the way it unfolded, one of them said the situation reminded him of the Tamil proverb: Vennai thirandu varumpodhu thaazhiyai udaitha kathaiyaaga irukkirathu (ruining everything when success was just within reach). Some said the alliance may have killed the minority’s trust in the AIADMK forever.
Two senior AIADMK leaders -- one from north TN and another from the south -- said the pact with the saffron party has spooked the cadres as the rising anti-incumbency against the DMK government would have brought rich electoral rewards to the AIADMK if the party had contested alone. The functionaries were also loath to the coalition government idea proposed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah at the press conference.
“AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami, deputy general secretary KP Munusamy, and former minister SP Velumani were just mute spectators at Shah’s press conference. AIADMK, which will lead the NDA in Tamil Nadu, should have been given the opportunity to declare the finalisation of the poll pact. What happened on Friday was unusual,” they said.
“Have you ever seen the cadres of a political party bursting crackers and distributing sweets when it severs ties with another party? The AIADMK cadres did that when the party snapped ties with the BJP in 2023,” reminisced a party functionary.
‘Recipe for success for BJP’
For the saffron party, however, the alliance with the Dravidian major is a strategic victory that could revive its political fortunes after a dismal show in the 2024 Lok Sabha election. “A few wanted the alliance talks to fail. They are crestfallen now,” BJP state general secretary AP Muruganandam said.
“More parties will now join this formidable alliance. Smaller parties in DMK will switch sides. It will be a two-cornered contest between the NDA and the DMK alliance. With BJP’s proven vote-share of 18% and AIADMK’s 25%, the arithmetic will automatically work out. We are determined to defeat our common enemy DMK. In 2026, the NDA will emerge victorious,” he added.
Exactly a year ahead of the elections, strategies are already being worked out.
“We know the strength and weakness of each party when we contested alone, and we will rectify our shortcomings and come out victorious,” said Muruganandam, who unsuccessfully contested from the Tiruppur Lok Sabha constituency in 2024.
Replying to questions about Annamalai, he said, “BJP is a cadre-based party, and all party workers will have a role. The party’s high command has already said that Annamalai will be given national responsibility, be part of day-to-day affairs of the party, and will be aggressively involved in campaigning,” he added.
AIADMK Tirunelveli urban district secretary Thatchai Ganesaraja said the cadres will toe the party line. When asked how AIADMK and BJP, which criticised each other when they parted ways ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha election, will work together now, he said, “In politics, there are no permanent enemies or friends. Depending on the circumstance, party leaders have formed the alliance. Under DMK government, corruption is rampant, murders have gone up, and drug abuse cases have spiked. To put an end to the DMK’s misrule, the alliance was formed.”
“Now, BJP has 10-12% votes, AIADMK, 25% votes. And there will be 7-8 % anti-DMK votes. This will add up to 40% votes. With that, we will win the election,” Ganesaraja added.
He also hoped that O Pannerselvam and TTV Dhinakaran would not take a stand against AIADMK. “We think that they might join hands with the BJP.”
Caste calculations too seem to have played a role. AIADMK leaders in the western region belonging to the Gounder community will play a key role in getting the community’s votes for the alliance. The appointment of Nainar Nagenthran, who belongs to the Thevar community, may help consolidate votes in the southern region. If the AIADMK-BJP combine manages to get PMK into their fold, NDA will become a stronger force in the northern region too.
Political commentator Tamilaruvi Manian called the AIADMK-BJP alliance a good beginning. “EPS had two options – either to go with BJP or with actor Vijay’s TVK. Since Vijay’s demands were high, he could not align with him. With pressure from the BJP, EPS had no other option than to align with the BJP.” he said.
“Parties like PMK and DMDK could also join the alliance. If that happens, the winnability of the AIADMK alliance across the state will be high. Political parties that are currently in the DMK alliance have anti-BJP ideologies, so they are unlikely to come out of that alliance,” he added.
Manian also said that DMK MP Kanimozhi’s statement about the AIADMK-BJP alliance shows that the DMK is in panic. When Jayalalithaa made an alliance with the BJP in 1998, M Karunanidhi strongly criticised it. But a year later, Karunanidhi himself allied with the BJP. Kanimozhi should not forget that, he added.
Political commentator Pongalur Manikandan says, “No alliance without AIADMK can defeat DMK. The only reason DMK won during the 2024 Lok Sabha election was because the opposition votes were split. Now, with the formation of the AIADMK-BJP alliance and the inclusion of parties like PMK and DMDK, the alliance will win 186 seats as per the 2024 polling of votes. If we include anti-incumbency votes, the alliance will definitely win 200 seats.”
Dalit Intellectual Collective national convenor C Lakshmanan doesn’t mince words while talking about DMK’s likely drubbing in 2026.
“There will be a multi-cornered contest, AIADMK-BJP alliance, DMK alliance, and Actor Vijay’s TVK and other groups. We do not know who is going to join Vijay. There will be a split in the DMK camp, and DMK is going to lose this time," he said.
“Even if all alliance parties are together, the winning chance for DMK is quite remote. Anti-incumbency, high corruption, violence against women, and Dalit will work against DMK. People who are aligned with it will also pay the price. BJP is no more untouchable. It has been accepted by the people,” Lakshmanan added.
A local BJP functionary in Coimbatore sees the alliance as a win-win situation for both parties. “Immediately after the alliance was officially announced, a few AIADMK booth level functionaries called and said now we can work together,” he said.
A senior AIADMK leader from the southern district recalled what happened when the DMK gave the upper hand to Congress in the 1980 Assembly election and shared Assembly seats on a 50:50 ratio, almost okaying a coalition government. The people of Tamil Nadu rejected that alliance.
He also recalled that the AIADMK, with two left parties and Kumari Ananthan’s Gandhi Kamaraj Desya Congress, besides Forward Bloc, captured the power. A victory akin to that is possible in the 2026 elections, given the spiralling hatred against the DMK government, he contended.
However, not everyone in the party is on the same page. Another AIADMK functionary, a former MLA, said the revival of the alliance has been done on EPS’s terms. BJP state president K Annamalai, who remained a thorn in the flesh of the AIADMK cadres, has been removed, and the saffron party has agreed to have a common minimum programme for the alliance. Way back in 1999, when the DMK led by M Karunanidhi aligned with the BJP for the first time, the Dravidian leader had ensured a CMP at the centre.
“Palaniswami has saved the face of the party by ensuring the CMP for the alliance. If the CMP is there, the BJP cannot cross the ‘Lakshman Rekha’ on issues concerning minority communities. Palaniswami has proved that AIADMK will hold its views on certain key issues. After meeting Amit Shah, the AIADMK MPs voted against the Waqf Bill. The AIADMK would take a similar stand in future also,” the functionary added.
When asked about the criticisms against EPS for agreeing to the coalition government with the BJP, the senior functionary said Amit Shah had only said the alliance would win the election. “This does not mean that all parties in the alliance would be part of the government,” he said.
Gloom in AIADMK camp
A sympathiser of the AIADMK for many decades said an uneasy relationship between AIADMK and BJP workers prevails on the ground, and a harmonious relationship between them during elections will be difficult.
Rejecting Amit Shah’s claim about AIADMK-BJP’s natural alliance, the sympathiser said, “Indeed, it can be described as a porunthaa koottani (an incompatible alliance) in the current scenario since Palaniswami repeatedly assured that there won’t be any alliance with the BJP in future and now forfeiting that promise will not augur well for the party. There may be difficulty in transfer of AIADMK and BJP votes between the two parties in the 2026 Assembly elections,” he added.
Former MP KC Palanisamy, who was expelled from the AIADMK a few years ago but has been consistently raising AIADMK-related issues, told TNIE, “The decision to align with the BJP is suicidal for the AIADMK. Power can change once every five years, but the party is forever. Palaniswami has surrendered the AIADMK to the BJP. He has done this for selfish reasons and to protect a few former ministers. He can never remove himself from this tangle.”
The din over the political pact will continue to grow as the state moves closer to the election. In the end, how effectively the alliance parties work together and marshal their forces will determine their fate.
