The numbers tell a worrying tale.
In the 2016 Assembly elections, when ex-CM J Jayalalithaa was still alive, the AIADMK secured a vote share of 41.3 percent, winning 136 seats and forming the government.
Five years later, in the 2021 Assembly elections, the party's vote share fell to 33.5 percent. Contesting 191 seats, it managed to win only 66.
The slide was more pronounced in the 2024 general election, where the AIADMK's vote share dropped to 20.7 percent.
It might not be a stretch then to say that the party is battling an existential crisis ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections.
Vignesh Rajamani, researcher in South and South East Asian politics, during a discussion on Dravidian politics, highlighted the biggest challenge the AIADMK chief Edappadi K Palanisami faces.
"Edappadi is a terrific organiser but lacks the charisma of MGR and Jayalalithaa," he noted.
Another researcher G Arun highlighted why this can become a glaring disadvantage. He says that unlike the DMK, the AIADMK does not have a strong organisational structure. With charismatic leaders utterly absent in the mix, it might make the party an even looser amalgamation.
On top of this comes the baggage brought on by the AIADMK's decision to align with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), say experts. This is unlikely to pay dividends in the soil of Dravidian politics, which accommodates diversity in sharp contrast to the BJP's homogeneity, they insist.
It also doesn't help that the AIADMK is now largely perceived as a party representing primarily the Thevar and Gounder communities.
The parade of leaders away from the party underlines another problem confronting EPS' leadership.
The fact that Nainar Nagendran, the state BJP president, was himself a former AIADMK minister says a lot about the present plight of the party.
Several others have moved to newer political pastures.
Former MP A Anwhar Raajhaa, considered a minority face of the party, joined the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in July 2025.
Former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam also joined the DMK on February 27, 2026 in the presence of Chief Minister MK Stalin. While EPS might claim that he forced OPS' hand, Stalin with the manner in which he welcomed OPS has made it clear that he considers it a blow against the AIADMK.
Then there's the new political party that VK Sasikala on February 24—Jayalalithaa's birth anniversary—announced she will be launching. The former CM's close aide unveiled a flag featuring the traditional colours of the Dravidian movement—black, white, and red—along with images of CN Annadurai, MGR, and Jayalalithaa. The party's name is yet to be announced.
Veteran politician Panruti S Ramachandran, who has previously been associated with the AIADMK, Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and DMK, too took away some supporters when he launched the MGR Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam. Ramachandran has extended his support to actor-turned-politician Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in the upcoming elections.
Former Transport Minister KA Sengottaiyan had joined the TVK before this.
Finally, there is former Sasikala loyalist VA Pugazhendhi, who launched another outfit—the Puratchi Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (Puratchi ADMK).
With the departures of Panneerselvam and Sasikala, the party may struggle to retain support from the Thevar community as well. Dalits have already drifted away from the AIADMK, while minority voters are unlikely to support the party due to its alliance with the BJP, Arun observed.
All of these make the task before the soon-to-be-72-year-old EPS that much more herculean.
With such odds stacked up against him, the former CM tried to go all out with his poll promises while announcing schemes like free bus rides for men and Rs 2000 a month for women. But even these have not generated much buzz, instead leading to a DMK minister dismissing them as copycat moves.
There is also the little matter of stitching together the seat-sharing arrangments with the BJP. The talks that began towards the end of December have still not concluded. The BJP is said to be demanding 35 seats. How EPS goes about it will form an interesting sub-chapter before the three-cornered race between the DMK and allies, TVK, and the NDA front officially kicks off.
It will also be interesting to see the manner in which he takes on Vijay. The TVK chief has tried to paint the election as a DMK-TVK battle. Most experts are expecting the new entrant to largely split the anti-DMK vote.
Being the seasoned political campaigner that he is, this implication will not be lost on EPS. The former Chief Minister surprised everyone with the dexterity with which he managed to consolidate power when in office. Now with elections round the corner, EPS needs to come up with an even better show, floating like a butterfly and stinging his opponents like a bee. Does he have it in him?
