Uttar Pradesh. Of the 23 crore population in India's largest state, nearly 70% or more are estimated to be living in rural areas.
By simple logic, the socio-political sentiment in UP's villages then should have a defining impact on the election results here. Building on that argument, since farming is increasingly considered unviable and unprofitable, since rural incomes, rural consumption and expenditure are going down, and since migration to cities is unabated, the results should have gone against the ruling party.
Yet, the state was more than kind to the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019 (64 seats for the NDA), despite the fact that rural distress that year was as bad as it is now. Is it all because of free ration, housing and direct benefit transfer? Or did the math go awry because it is simplistic to draw a direct connection between rural distress and election results?
The question becomes important as the causes of rural distress such as low income, unviable farming, lack of employment, migration and uncomfortable living conditions have remained unchanged especially for marginalised and small farmers even in 2024. They, and other unskilled or semi-skilled people have been thronging the cities to work as daily wage labourers, domestic helps, or doing odd jobs. But even then, most of them manage to retain their land holding (howsoever small) and do some farming by periodically going to their villages. Migration, one can say, has been a mitigating factor to their distress.
But in recent years, those having mid-sized farms and own houses in UP’s villages are encountering new challenges such as shortage of farm labourers, the menace of stray cattle and animals, corruption, high-handedness of village level government functionaries, and uneven implementation of welfare schemes.
At election time, some of these issues have acquired an urgency that might have impacted the polling in last three phases, and may do so in the rest.
Labour shortage
The shortage of farm labourers is a problem faced by many farmers, regardless of the size of cultivable land. Many activities that involve the use of manual labour, for which traditionally men and women from the economically weaker sections in villages were hired as required.
But over the last few years, the availability of work and money through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) has led many people to shun manual farm labour. Also, the direct benefit transfer (DBT) of money for nutrition for expectant mothers, daughters, education, health, pension etc has led to an assured amount reaching them every month. As a result, farming is increasingly becoming difficult -- and less remunerative -- for land owners, unless they have their own manpower to handle the work.
This is the story all over UP.
As Rameshwar Khare in Mohammadi, near Lakhimpur Kheri says, "We have sold off a part of our farm land as there is big shortage of farm labour and we intend to convert the land into something commercial."
The land is fertile and he would like to retain the mango orchard as it does not require much tending.
In village Baba Baldev Singh Ka Purwa in Barabanki, Dharam Pal says farming on their family land had become difficult as there were no labourers to be found in the season. So, they are planning to put it to some other use as the Purvanchal Expressway passing within a few kilometres might open new opportunities.
For those not having commercially viable alternatives, it indeed is a tough call.
Stray cattle menace
Stray cattle and wild animals continue to be a big problem in most districts.
The state government has been very strict about cow protection as a result of which there is an abundance of emaciated stray cattle roaming around. The destruction of standing crops by such animals is aggravated by the state government's order that no barbed wires should be used to fence fields.
According to an agency report quoting the 2019 Livestock Census, there are over 1.90 crore cattle in Uttar Pradesh, including 62,04,304 milch cows and 23,36,151 dry cows. There are cow shelters but all are packed to capacity. The stray cattle menace has also added to farmers' economic woes as they do not know what to do with cows that have stopped giving milk.
In May 2017, the Centre banned the sale of cattle for slaughter in animal markets across the country. This has led to a serious problem across the state and farmers blame the present government for it. If these grievances run truly deep, the voting behaviour is likely to be impacted.
High-handedness
Despite digitisation of government work, offices at the tehsil (sub-district) level continue to be hotbeds of corruption, inefficiency and high-handedness. Be it agriculture, Panchayati Raj, electricity, irrigation, land revenue, the junior officers and clerks work as per their convenience and seek favours even for small work.
After every election, people expect change but that never comes. If the harassment is blatantly caste- or community-driven, then the sufferers decide to extract their revenge. It was evident in the vote for change in the 2017 Assembly election.
Caste factor
Caste and regional loyalties continue to play strong roles in socio-political decision-making in villages and will do so in the 2024 election that is a waveless one at the moment and seeing a return to regular politics.
Caste tensions, favours done by local politicians and the apprehension of repercussions in case of an unfavourable verdict play upon the minds of the village people.
An interesting anecdote in this regard comes from Ballia where local residents say a senior Samajwadi Party leader is helping the campaign of the Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Neeraj Shekhar, out of deference for the latter's late father, the veteran Chandra Shekhar.
Lack of employment
Even though MNREGS has been a source of some relief, no substantive employment opportunities have come up in villages. Although self-help groups of women have flourished in many districts and success stories of small businesses being run by women in Ambedkar Nagar, Baghpat, Fatehpur, Lucknow, Gorakhpur have been well known.
But, the repeated cancellation of examinations for recruitment to government vacancies following a paper leak, and delay in initiating the process of many other government recruitments has caused widespread resentment among the youth.
In an interesting incident, many youths of Ballia had applied for and got government jobs in adjoining Bihar and are giving credit to the RJD-Congress combine that was in government with Nitish Kumar in Bihar then. They and their family members are now canvassing for the Samajwadi Party in UP.
"The reduction of opportunity in defence forces because of Agniveer scheme has also angered the youth," says Om Prakash, a farmer in Ballia's Chhitikiya village.
The other side
If things are indeed so stark, then the sentiment should be against the ruling party all over the state. But it is not so. Undoubtedly, free foodgrains, free toilets, PM rural housing, women SHGs, meals in schools, money for books, copies, stationery, uniforms and socks, pension and insurance money coming into bank accounts have had their impact.
Another big factor is that organised crime is now much less of a hazard in the state. The threat of extortion, kidnapping and bonded labour at the hands of criminal gangs has reduced drastically. In its place, crimes of passion and revenge have increased, but that generally does not have a bearing on how the law and order situation is perceived.
According to police officials, there used to be crime syndicates in all districts, sometimes more than one in a big district.
"There has been an organized campaign to neutralise such gangs, and the impact is for all to see," says Vijay Kumar, former Director-General of Police (DGP) who served in this post from May 31, 2023 to January 31, 2024. He adds that there has been a big rise in convictions as well with prosecution being taken seriously.
Under 'Operation Conviction' meant to speed up the sentencing process for serious crimes, 3,020 criminals were punished, with 3,000 receiving life imprisonment and 20 receiving the death penalty.
Village life may not present the idyllic picture traditionally associated with it, but there are mobile phones in the hands of almost every village-dweller. The youth are engrossed in their screens or making videos to add to their social media feeds. More girls can be seen going to schools, and the desire to earn money by whatever means is perceptible everywhere.
The road network in most villages has vastly improved, except for those in remote areas. The electricity supply is not round-the-clock yet, but has improved in last ten years -- the summer shortage notwithstanding. The handpumps continue to be the major source of water supply even as the Jal Jeewan Mission under the National Rural Drinking Water Project (NRDWP) is slowly making an impact.
All things considered, community and faith compulsions, freebies, and the acceptability of a strong ruler may actually make voters from UP's villages forget the sources of their distress while pressing the button.
