Electoral math can make for strange bedfellows.
Almost all political parties in Tamil Nadu are against the policies of the BJP-led government at the Centre, right from the NEET to NEP and delimitation to the latest Waqf (Amendment) Bill. Yet, the talk of a possible BJP-AIADMK alliance is gathering momentum ahead of the 2026 Assembly elections in TN.
The reasons are simple.
AIADMK, the key opposition party in the state, is a mere shadow of what it was under their two titans -- MGR and J Jayalalithaa. The BJP led by the indefatigible K Annamalai has, meanwhile, been seeking to make quick inroads but to little avail. The two parties, going by the numbers at least, need each other to take on the might of the ruling DMK when they go before the voters next year.
The twain had once met in 2023, before it all fell apart. The question doing the rounds is will the two come together again? In Kaun Banega Crorepati lingo, will it be a deal or no deal?
Interestingly, another question has also popped up post senior AIADMK leader and former minister, KA Sengottaiyan's meeting with Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman. Will the BJP do to the AIADMK what it did to the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra if Edapaddi K Palaniswami hesitates?
The buzz, as everyone knows, began after AIADMK general secretary EPS accompanied by senior leaders of the party met BJP's election strategist and Union Home Minister Amit Shah. This preceded Sengottiyan's meeting with Sitharaman.
These meetings triggered speculations about the possible revival of ties between the AIADMK and the BJP. While Palaniswami maintained that he only discussed issues relating to the people of Tamil Nadu with Amit Shah, the latter went on record stating that talks indeed were on with the AIADMK for a possible alliance.
Then there were reports that BJP state chief K Annamalai would be replaced to placate the AIADMK. As if to prove speculations right, Annamalai on April 4 ruled himself out of the race for the party's state leadership.
Will a possible revival of alliance between the AIADMK and BJP, which ended on a bitter note two years ago, augur well for both parties in the 2026 Assembly elections? Or will it end up as an attempt to fix a broken jar?
If the AIADMK bites the bait, will they end up directly walking into the line of fire of the DMK, who have already trained their guns on the BJP and delimitation, NEP, NEET and also the newly-passed Waqf Amendment bill?
The bigger question possibly is do the AIADMK leaders even have the luxury of pondering over the to-be-or-not-to-be Hamletian dilemma?
Actor-turned-politician Vijay, a political novice, during the first general council meeting of his party, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), recently, declared that during the upcoming assembly polls the main contest will be between the TVK and DMK.
This in many ways underlines the plight of the AIADMK, a party that may be in a last-gasp fight for survival this time around.
A party heavyweight's message for EPS
One heavyweight believes the party only has a Hobson's choice before it.
Saidai Duraisamy, one of the veterans of the AIADMK and former Mayor of Chennai Corporation, issued a statement calling for a united AIADMK to take on the DMK in the 2026 Assembly elections.
Without mentioning the name of any of the AIADMK leaders, Duraisamy said repeated defeats at the hustings has demoralised the AIADMK cadres. He recalled how party founder MG Ramachandran took pragmatic decisions at critical moments and forged alliances for facing elections.
Duraisamy said that MGR never confronted the ruling party at the Centre and a similar strategy is needed now. He said the AIADMK should ally with the BJP and other political outfits to defeat the DMK in the upcoming assembly elections.
Since all other leaders like O Panneerselvam, KC Palanisamy and others are insisting on a unified AIADMK, it is clear that Duraisamy's advice is meant only for Edappadi K Palaniswami.
Durai Karuna agrees that unity is the need of the hour.
The senior journalist, who has been observing political developments for over four decades, is of the view that the grassroot-level members of the AIADMK have been thoroughly demoralised by the developments in the party. He felt the party must heed Saidai Duraisamy's call.
Karuna also agrees that the refusal of Palaniswami to get along with leaders like Panneerselvam goes against the examples set by both MGR and Jayalalithaa. Both leaders acted sagaciously in critical situations to save the party.
"MGR took along with him even his bitter critics and gave them key positions in the party. He also declared that he would not lose even a cadre and stuck to that till steered the AIADMK (to safe waters). Similarly, Jayalalithaa also gave space for her bitter critics (in her early days as party leader) and gave them important positions in the party. But Palaniswami is refusing to do this at a time when the party needs to be strengthened by all means possible," Karuna pointed out.
The other side
But an alliance with the BJP though might be a step too far if you were to go by the reactions of many other leaders and ground workers from either side.
"How can the leaders of both parties take their cadres for granted?" questioned an AIADMK functionary, who spoke to The New Indian Express on condition of anonymity.
"For the past many years, the relationship between the AIADMK and the BJP has been quite uneasy. The AIADMK cadres strongly feel that the BJP has been interfering in their affairs and trying to slowly eliminate the party or at least try to keep the AIADMK under its control. So, even if both parties come together for the sake of elections, it is not going to help either of them," the AIADMK functionary went on to state.
Many young leaders in the BJP also feel that disrupting the momentum that present party chief K Annamalai built against the Dravidian majors will not help the saffron party in the long-term.
'Little to gain for the AIADMK'
Political analyst Tharasu Shyam is another expert who is of the opinion that a tie-up with BJP will not do any good for the AIADMK because, as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, the saffron party remains isolated over its stand on several issues.
For instance, the people of the state oppose BJP's stand on delimitation and the three-language policy that the Centre is being seen as trying to impose on Tamil Nadu, he underlined.
"Even the PMK is not willing to align with the BJP for the upcoming assembly elections. As of now, only smaller parties are willing to go with the BJP," Shyam said.
On the reported meeting between KA Sengottaiyan and BJP leaders in Delhi, Shyam said, "If the BJP brings in Sengottaiyan in place of Palaniswami, it will only strengthen Palaniswamy, who will assume the role of defender of MGR's legacy."
Shyam also insisted that arithmetical calculations being done by the BJP won't work since there is a lack of chemistry between the two parties -- the AIADMK and the BJP.
Senior journalist T Sigamani is also of the view that forging an alliance with the BJP for the 2026 Assembly elections will not benefit the AIADMK in any way and this will turn out to be counterproductive for the Dravidian party.
"The AIADMK snapped its ties with the BJP in September 2023, months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections. Nearly two years after asserting that the AIADMK will not align with the BJP even in the 2026 Assembly elections, a change in tune now due to other compulsions will not go well with the cadres of the AIADMK," Sigamani felt.
Besides, Sigamani said there is a perception that the BJP has been taking an anti-Tamil Nadu stand on all key issues including delimitation, the three-language policy and the Waqf Amendment Bill, which goes against the Muslims.
"At this stage, if the AIADMK aligns with the BJP, the AIADMK has to share the anti-Tamil Nadu image along with the BJP and it won't do any good for a party that has already seen an erosion in its own vote bank in the Lok Sabha elections," Sigamani added.
The senior journalist also said the BJP has nothing to lose in Tamil Nadu whereas the AIADMK has a lot to. Aligning with the BJP will make the AIADMK a laughing stock among the minority communities and that is something the party can ill afford.
Some key background facts:
--- After the death of J Jayalalithaa in December 2016, O Panneerselvam was made CM but was forced to step down by VK Sasikala.
--- After the SC sentenced Sasikala in the wealth case, she chose Edappadi K Palaniswami as the next CM
--- AIADMK split into two factions - one led by O Panneerselvam and another by Edappadi K Palaniswami
--- After many talks, both factions merged in 2017 sidelining Sasikala and her nephew TTV Dhinakaran who formed the AMMK later.
--- In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AIADMK aligned with the BJP and faced a rout (won just one seat)
--- In the 2021 Assembly elections, the AIADMK lost power to the DMK.
--- In 2022, O Panneerselvam was expelled from the AIADMK
--- In 2023, EPS got elected as the general secretary of the AIADMK
--- In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, AIADMK faced a rout