Pakistan's violation of the ceasefire just hours after agreeing to it and what it underlines

India has termed the intrusion by Pakistan immediately after the ceasefire extremely condemnable. But why has it unraveled so quickly?
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All it took was a few hours after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire for elements in the Pakistani military to go rogue.

That this came after the Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif profusely thanked US President Donald Trump for facilitating the agreement was striking.

At around 9 pm came the news that drones were back in action in Srinagar and Gujarat and that there was indiscriminate firing of shells across the North-western border of India.

"What the hell just happened to the ceasefire? Explosions heard across Srinagar," a shocked Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Omar Abdullah posted on the microblogging platform X.

The Gujarat Home Minister Harsh Sanghavi too tweeted that "several drones have been spotted in the Kutch district".

He went on to add that "a complete blackout will be implemented now. Please stay safe, don't panic."

In the Kutch region, people, who had welcomed news of the ceasefire in the evening, were left wondering why this had to happen.

"What about the ceasefire? How can we trust Pakistan that they will obey it now? It is unbearably hot here and we have to make do without electricity," said Banwari Lal from Bhuj.

India's Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri confirmed and condemned the ceasefire violations by Pakistan in a late-night briefing, stating that India was retaliating.

"This intrusion is extremely condemnable and Pakistan is responsible for it. We believe that Pakistan should understand this situation properly and take appropriate action immediately to stop this intrusion," he went on to state.

But why was Pakistan losing the plot so quickly?

How the ceasefire came about and why it is being violated

Speaking to The New Indian Express, strategic expert and former director and chairman, Gulf Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) Aftab Kamal Pasha said the violation of ceasefire clearly shows the rift between the civilian government and military leadership in Pakistan has worsened.

"The ceasefire was a result of pressure from the Gulf countries and Türkiye, who started viewing Pakistan as an irrational actor in the conflict with India. They feared that if pushed to the wall, Pakistan could even use nuclear tactical weapons against India and the situation could get out of hand," he said.

"The UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Türkiye approached President Donald Trump seeking US mediation to end the hostilities between India and Pakistan immediately. The conflict was already escalating and could have taken a dangerous turn if they all didn't intervene was their belief.

"Trump stepped in and asked both the countries to end the conflict immediately. The US, which was holding back the IMF (International Monetary Fund) loan to Pakistan for long, may have agreed to disburse it on Friday on the condition that they will agree to a ceasefire with India.

"The economic condition in Pakistan is in shambles, and the growing unrest among the people there because of this must have made them agree to this," explained Professor Pasha.

But then what the mediators might have failed to factor in were the differences in opinion that exist between the civilian and military leadership when it came to the ceasefire.

"The uneasy relationship between them means the military leadership will thwart any attempt by the civilian government to end hostility with India and threaten to dislodge it. The ball is now in India's court. Will we respond appropriately to the ceasefire violation or will we wait for US intervention? It is a delicate situation either way for India," he went on to underline.

China factor and how it holds out hope

Interestingly, India's National Security Advisor Ajit Doval spoke with the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi after the ceasefire violations.

"China supports and expects India and Pakistan to achieve a comprehensive and lasting ceasefire through consultation," China's official agency Xinhua quoted Wang as saying during the call with Doval.

With China being Pakistan's biggest lender and holding immense clout with the establishment there, it's a development that offers hope that sanity could still prevail.

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