Glorious uncertainty is what Kerala elections offer, of late!
During past polls, indications were clear, trends and sentiments more or less predictable, and results mostly on expected lines, other than a few minor exceptions here and there.
Zoom to the present. The political scenario, the factors in-play, the unique characteristics that favour or diminish possibilities, the people-connect and mass elements... all seem to have undergone a paradigm shift.
With leaders switching sides, fresh narratives gaining daily prominence, new surveys popping up almost every other day and frequent social media storms, the Kerala assembly election 2026 has all the makings of an electoral potpourri, never witnessed before by the state.
Struggle for survival
It's literally a do-or-die battle for the ruling LDF and the Opposition UDF, while the saffron-led alliance is keen to make a significant mark at least this time around. In short, it will all boil down to survival of the fittest!
Kerala, which has traditionally altered between two rival fronts for close to four decades, set a new historical record, when in 2021 it re-elected the ruling government. This made Pinarayi Vijayan the first-ever Chief Minister to return to power.
The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which has occupied the Opposition benches for a decade, can't afford to maintain status quo anymore. For both the Congress and the League, yet another defeat would spell the end of the road in state politics. Many believe that the League—or at least a section of leaders—may join the Left Front, if the United Democratic Front fails to score a thumping win, which would mean there may no longer exist a UDF in the state.
Having been in the Opposition for long also translates into lack of election funds for the UDF to hit the ground running. The Congress, which is in power in just three states, is in dire need of a thunderous electoral comeback in Kerala. Another defeat is unthinkable even for minor parties like IUML, Kerala Congress (Joseph), RSP and Kerala Congress (Jacob).
On the other hand, the Left Democratic Front too ironically faces an almost similar predicament. As the only remaining red citadel in the country—after losing both West Bengal and Tripura—the Left can't wish for anything less than a stupendous victory in Kerala.
Both the CPM and the CPI are on the verge of losing national party status. A win is not just essential to keep their presence alive in the Rajya Sabha, but also imperative to keep their political narrative alive on the national stage.
As far as the BJP is concerned, it's the final chance to prove that it's a force to reckon with in the state. After winning its first and only assembly seat in 2016, a lone Lok Sabha seat in 2024, and capturing the prestigious Thiruvananthapuram corporation in 2025, the saffron party has finally attained a position from where there's no going back.
With favourable conditions both nationally and locally, winning at least 3-5 seats and increasing its vote share to at least 20%, is the minimum the party leadership would aim for.
The perennial issue of funds need not be a major challenge for either the LDF or the BJP. But it's so for the UDF.
“Due to two major factors, we would prefer a short campaign period. One is the simmering heat, and second is the financial constraints. That's the reason why many parties are delaying candidate announcement. Once candidates are declared, we'll have to keep the momentum going till elections," pointed out a senior UDF leader.
Perception battles and agenda-setting
Elections anywhere, especially in Kerala, are a battle of perceptions. The war of narratives has already begun.
Initially, the gold theft from the hill shrine of Sabarimala was the first major electoral war-narrative. With the thanthri of the temple, CPM leaders and a few ex-Devaswom Board officials getting arrested, it had all the trappings to make it to the central stage of the poll campaign. However with the investigation going on at a steady pace, the said narrative has taken a backstage and rival camps are unable to cash in as much as they expected to.
Notably, the ruling Left chose to put forth development as its major narrative in this elections. The LDF has adopted a two-pronged approach, focusing on both development and welfare. Completing big-ticket projects like Vizhinjam port, National Highway, Gail pipeline, new roads and bridges, in addition to human-centric initiatives like rehabilitation of Wayanad landslide victims and the tunnel road are the major development achievements being highlighted.
Simultaneously, welfare and social security pensions—timely delivery and hike in pensions along with imaginative new measures like financial assistance to women and youngsters, DA to government employees—are also being projected. The opposition UDF will obviously find it difficult to counter the development narrative, and so the attempt here from them is to get a slice of the credit. Invoking past instances and projects by ex-Congress leaders are the tactics being used by the UDF to counter these.
Political narratives are now gradually taking centrestage in this election. Curiously the prime narrative is centered on Muslim politics. Both the LDF and the BJP have been targeting the UDF for the prominence given to the Muslim League. A few have even come on record snidely suggesting that if the Congress comes to power, subsequent governance will surely amount to backseat driving by Muslim League. Here, the message that is being subtly conveyed is that the state home department would be run by the IUML, lending it a communal undertone.
Be it the CPM's back-to-back attacks on Jamaat-e-Islami's support of the UDF, the BJP targeting the two fronts for minority appeasement, the CPM attacking the Congress over soft Hindutva and the LDF's overtures to the majority Hindu community through events like Global Ayyappa meet, all these should be viewed in such a backdrop.
Post the local-body polls' defeat, the LDF has, meanwhile, finally gathered the significance of fresh narratives in perception building. Taking a cue from rivals, the Left has been in the process of coming up with fresh narratives centred around new initiatives, a sturdily rooted welfare state and Pinarayi as a strong leader. On the other side, narratives are being tailored to cut the Opposition Leader VD Satheesan down to size. The UDF seems to have zeroed in on LDF's game-plan and is responding accordingly.
With such an array of perceptions in play, and fresh narratives introduced by respective social media teams of all three fronts by the hour, it's just a matter of days before a full-fledged final poll-campaign ensconced in communal overtones is unleashed on the susceptible voters who are easily swayed by social media 'viral' epidemics.
The inevitable community quota and faith factor
Traditionally, Kerala society, irrespective of its so-called progressive ideals and social indices, has followed certain community equations, when it comes to elections. Just how community equations would pan out was what lent the inevitable edge to either of the fronts in elections. But this time around, community quotas may not deliver on expected lines.
In traditional political parlance, the CPM has been termed as a Hindu majority party, while Muslim and Christian minorities usually stand by the UDF. Having the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) and the Kerala Congress—a traditionally Christian majority party from central Kerala—in its fold, aided the UDF to solely depend on minority votes. But the Left Front succeeded in wooing a major portion of the Kerala Congress into its own fold in the last electoral outing.
Of late, the bi-partisan scenario however has undergone drastic changes. With the entry of a significant third player, the BJP-led NDA, which is being dubbed as the party with true Hindutva ideals, the electoral space allocation within the state has been redrawn. The CPM no longer holds the unstinted support of the majority community. Moreover, the Sabarimala fiasco in 2018—when the Left government implemented the SC verdict on women entry—and Sabarimala gold theft case in 2025 have estranged a section of the majority community from the CPM.
While the Congress ended up the true beneficiary of the Sabarimala episode in the 2019 LS polls, who would majorly cash in on the gold theft case is a crucial point to ponder. While both the UDF and the BJP try to tap the Hindu vote, the CPM is taking all possible steps to plug the steady erosion of its mass base. A slew of house visits and leaders' meets are being held to convince the masses of its steadfast loyalty to the interests of the common man.
While the Christian community always stood with the Congress once upon a time, of late, this too has witnessed a gradual shift in loyalties. Both the LDF and the BJP have been trying to make inroads into the community, with the latter seeming to succeed in its efforts to a major extent.
Crossovers, turncoats and shifting loyalties
In an election where all three fronts rely on winnability and winnability alone, switching sides and shifting loyalties, is stale news. Though never a widespread trend, earlier too Kerala witnessed major leaders and at times parties, crossing over to rival fronts—primarily for electoral gains, albeit always under the guise of ideological differences.
But what stands out now is the nature of these shifts and the timing. Unlike the last time when it was the UDF who saw its leaders parting ways, this time around, it is the LDF that has to bear the brunt. In what appeared to be an almost exodus of sorts, ahead of the polls, a slew of leaders—among them four ex-MLAs—left the CPM front to join hands with the Congress.
Left Independent PV Anvar initiated the trend when he stepped down as Nilambur MLA more than a year ago, putting the leadership in stark crisis. Later the UDF wrested the seat from the Left. With elections approaching, the trend continued with more leaders bidding adieu to the CPM, citing various reasons.
Senior leader and three-time Kottarakkara MLA Aisha Potty's shift to the Congress could be the biggest jolt of all, as the UDF is set to file her candidature against sitting MLA and finance minister KN Balagopal. Similarly ex-Devikulam MLA S Rajendran, who has been keeping away from party activities for some time, joined the BJP.
Another senior leader—former Shornur MLA PK Sasi—switched sides a couple of days ago, after raising serious allegations against the party district leadership. It was hardly a month ago that CPM Kannur district committee member V Kunhikrishnan too severed ties with the party, after raising serious financial allegations against the Payyanur MLA.
A slew of other Left fellow travelers—former Chalachithra academy chairman Premkumar, late CPM veteran VS Achuthanandan's former personal assistant A Suresh Kumar—are among those who joined hands on UDF platforms in the past few weeks. Though the much-hyped entry of these leaders may not actually get converted into votes, it would certainly boost the chances of the UDF in the ongoing 'perception' war.
In yet another major setback to the CPM, veteran leader and ex-minister G Sudhakaran, too recently came down heavily against the party leadership, unleashing a scathing attack against the party state secretary MV Govindan. He however thankfully made it clear that he would not join the rival front, at least for now.
So, the games before the big game have well and truly begun. All we need to do now is to sit back and wait for the action to truly heat up.
