Traditionally one-sided, the April 9 Assam Assembly elections are likely to throw up a "contest" in the truest sense.
Assam has 126 Assembly seats. There has always been a huge gap between the largest party and the second largest party in terms of the number of seats they won. In the past eight elections, the closest was a 25-seat gap in 1996 when the regional Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) had bagged 59 seats compared to the Congress' 34.
As the state now braces for the polls, "contest" is the buzzword.
Only time will tell whether the BJP-led NDA can hold its Assam fort or the Congress—which ruled the state from 2001-2016 under former Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi—can upset the NDA applecart. But many believe that there will be a contest this time around.
The importance of silent voters
Observers say the silent voters will largely determine whether there is a contest or not.
"The BJP has already managed to attract a lot of voters through its populist welfare schemes and development initiatives," said Jayanta Krishna Sarmah, who teaches political science at the Gauhati University.
Similarly, he continued, the Congress-led six-party Opposition front has been able to take up some pertinent issues, including the demand for "Justice for Zubeen Garg", although whether or not it translates into votes remains to be seen. He said the Opposition front also attempted to create a "save democracy" narrative.
"The votes of the 'floating or undecided' voters, who are neither the beneficiaries of any government welfare scheme nor the workers or supporters of any political party, will be crucial for both ruling and Opposition sides," Sarmah further stated.
Anup Sharma, a senior journalist, feels that there will be a contest but NDA will eventually form the government. "I strongly feel that the BJP's seats will get reduced although NDA is likely to retain power," he further stated.
Both the NDA—BJP, AGP and Bodoland People's Front—and the Opposition alliance—Congress, Raijor Dal, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI(M), CPI(ML) and All Party Hill Leaders Conference—have their strengths and weaknesses. The NDA has been in power since 2016 and anti-incumbency could be a major factor against it.
The second issue likely to affect the NDA is the unfulfilled demand of justice for Garg, who according to Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, was "murdered". Himanta had stated, "Why would you vote for us if we cannot ensure justice for Zubeen?"
And when the demand for justice grew louder, he countered it by claiming that the government had already fulfilled it by filing the charge sheet on time and arresting seven suspects. He further sought to suggest that as the Assam Police made a strong case, none of them managed to walk out of jail on bail.
What works for the NDA and what doesn't
The government, led by the Chief Minister, is facing serious corruption charges. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi accused Sarma of opening a "land ATM", alleging that vast swathes of land was sold to a few industrialists and the money received was being used in politics.
The NDA's greatest strength will be the welfare schemes, particularly "Orunodoi". Under it, women from economically disadvantaged families are provided with monthly financial assistance of Rs 1,250. An estimated 40 lakh of Assam's 2.5 crore voters are the beneficiaries of Orunodoi.
The NDA also won many hearts by ensuring clean recruitments in government departments over the past 10 years. The Congress faced serious corruption charges in recruitments during its 15-year rule.
Assam witnessed unprecedented infrastructure development over the last 10 years under the NDA. Many major roads, bridges, medical and engineering colleges and other projects were built during this period. The NDA is also likely to gain from the 2023 delimitation exercise, and polarisation of Hindu voters by going hard at "Miyas" or Bengali-speaking Muslims.
Sympathy votes for Congress?
As for the Congress, its greatest weakness is that it has got reduced to a one-leader party. The Congress' state president Gaurav Gogoi is the only leader left in the party with a statewide reach.
The Congress faces the serious charge of encouraging the infiltration of illegal Bangladeshi migrants, shielding them and settling them in forests and government lands when it was in power. There are concerns among indigenous communities over the steady change in Assam's demography.
During the election campaign, the Chief Minister flagged the issue of corruption in recruitments during Congress rule. He cautioned people that they would have to buy government jobs again if the Congress was voted to power.
The Congress has some advantages as well as it heads into the elections. The party is hoping to cash in on Gogoi's clean image. There are no charges of corruption against his family despite his father serving as the Chief Minister for 15 years.
The Congress is also likely to get sympathy votes especially in Upper Assam for two reasons.
Gogoi faced personal attacks from the Chief Minister over his Pakistan visit but, ultimately, as the Congress leader claimed, Sarma could not convince people with his charges. Secondly, a section of voters is likely to sympathise with him for fighting the battle singlehandedly after others left him to be with the ruling party.
Overall, there are issues such as floods, river erosion, price rise, unemployment.
The Congress is banking heavily on anti-incumbency and the charisma of Garg, once a heartthrob of the young generation, while the BJP is pinning its hopes on retaining power by riding mainly its popular welfare schemes and development initiatives.
