NEW DELHI: Recent remarks by Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat and two chief ministers of Southern states have ignited a heated debate around crucial issues such as India’s demographic trends, declining fertility rates, and the pressing social and economic challenges the country faces.
Bhagwat’s suggestion that Indian couples should aim to have at least three children to bolster the nation’s population, sparked not only a political backlash, but also raised significant concerns about the perception of reducing women to mere ‘child bearers’ while overlooking their autonomy and reproductive rights.
He cited a scientific concept known as the Total fertility rate (TFR), advocating for families to have three children instead of the familiar slogan of ‘Hum Do Hamare Do’ (We two, ours two). This well-known phrase was integral to India’s national family planning programme and has been a staple in the public consciousness for decades. TFR represents the average number of children a woman is expected to bear throughout her reproductive years, serving as a key indicator of population growth and demographic health.
“Our country’s population policy, formulated in 1998 or 2002, clearly says that the total fertility rate should not be below 2.1. Now when we say 2.1, it is not feasible to have children in fraction. So when we say 2.1, this means it should be more, at least three. Population science says so,” Bhagwat said.
RSS’ earlier stance
Though population control policy has always been high on the BJP and RSS agenda, the RSS had adopted a measured approach to it. In his 2022 Vijayadashami speech, Bhagwat argued in favour of a comprehensive population control policy to tackle demographic challenges over the next 50 years. He also said that religion-based population balance is an important subject that can’t be ignored.
“If population is used correctly, it is not a burden, but rather a means. We have a demographic dividend. China is getting old. We are going to remain young for the next 30 years... We also have to think about the population. How many people can our country feed after 50 years... A comprehensive policy is required,” he had said. In 2004 and 2015, the RSS passed resolutions on population control policy.
In 2015, Vishwa Hindu Parishad leader Champat Rai said family planning “was not a personal matter for Hindus anymore and if they adhered to the one-child norm, Muslims would take over the country.”
Responding to Bhagwat’s remarks, former Rajya Sabha MP Rakesh Sinha told this paper that by advocating a three-child norm, the RSS chief addressed a crucial concern of decline in the young population. In 2019, Sinha, then a BJP MP moved a private member’s bill proposing that every government employee shall give an undertaking to “not procreate more than two children” and to reward those who follow the two-child policy.
Sinha is of the view that ‘demographic imbalance’ in terms of the rising population of Muslims vis-à-vis Hindus, is a major concern that needs to be addressed. “As per the 2011 Census, the Hindu population is decreasing in the country. We can’t deny that truth,” said Sinha, adding that the social discourse must get more attention. While Sinha withdrew the bill later, he said there was no contradiction with the government on it.
Govt and RSS not on same page?
Activists and the Opposition parties point out that the BJP and RSS are speaking in different voices on the issue. Raising it for the first time during his Independence Day speech in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said the issue of an ever-rising population is a matter of concern and that a small section of society, which keeps their families small, deserves respect.
During the interim Budget speech in February this year, Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced that the government will form a high-powered committee to look into the challenges arising from fast population growth and demographic changes. The committee is yet to be formed.
In an affidavit to the Supreme Court in 2020, the Union government said it cannot coerce couples into having a certain number of children to curb population explosion as it will be counter-productive.
Some of the BJP-ruled states such as Assam and Uttar Pradesh have introduced stringent measures to control population growth. The Assam government in 2017 passed a law to prohibit individuals with more than two children from applying for government jobs. The state Law Commission of Uttar Pradesh proposed that families exceeding the two-child norm should not receive government subsidies.
On the other hand, to address issues of low fertility rates and an aging population, Andhra Pradesh recently scrapped the two-child policy. Telangana is also likely to reverse the two-child criteria for local body poll contestants soon. Other states that scrapped the two-child policy include Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
Population policy
In 1952, India became the first nation globally to initiate a comprehensive national programme focused on family planning. This pioneering effort aimed to reduce birth rates to stabilise the population at a level appropriate for supporting the nation’s economic needs. The initiative was designed to align demographic growth with the sustainable requirements of the economy, reflecting a forward-thinking approach to population management during a critical period in the country’s development.
The National Health Policy established in 1983 set an ambitious goal for India to achieve replacement TFR levels by 2000. This policy emphasised the importance of population control to ensure sustainable development. Fast forward to May 11, 2000, when India introduced its National Population Policy. This forward-looking policy sought to comprehensively address the nation’s reproductive and child health requirements while outlining a strategic plan to stabilise the population by 2045. Through a multifaceted approach, the policy aimed to promote health, empower families, and ensure a balanced demographic future.
In 2023, India officially surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation, with the United Nations reporting a population of 1,425,775,850, determined through a combination of census data and analyses of birth and death rates. Projections indicate that India’s population may peak at 1.7 billion by 2064. Approximately 86,000 children are born daily in India, compared to 49,400 in China, which implemented a stringent one-child policy in the 1980s.
Challenging the prevailing narrative, Poonam Muttreja, Executive Director of the Population Foundation of India (PFI), says, “India’s population debate needs a shift from fear-mongering to empowering policies. The declining fertility rate is not a crisis but an opportunity to invest in health, education, and gender equality.”
Why southern states are aggrieved
In the last three months, the chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu have urged couples in their states to have more children to arrest the lower population growth rates. Unlike other states, the South faces a peculiar problem of looming political crisis because of the impending delimitation exercise.
There is a fear among the Southern states — which successfully controlled population growth — that a reconfiguration based on current census data could drastically cut their representation in the Lok Sabha.
The Union government is expected to begin the next census in 2025 and the delimitation process by 2027. The Southern states have flagged their concerns that if the delimitation is conducted on the basis of population census, it would reduce their representation in Parliament.
“We are considering incentivising families with more children to encourage couples to expand their families,” said key NDA ally and Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu on October 19. Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin said in a lighter vein, “Why not aim for 16 children?”
Speaking to this newspaper, TDP MP and Parliamentary party leader Lavu Sri Krishna Devarayalu said that the delimitation policy should be reworked and more consultations with stakeholders should be undertaken to address the state’s concerns. “Our primary concern is the impending census and delimitation exercise. As per the existing formula, states like Andhra Pradesh, which successfully achieved population control, will lose out to other states. Our seats in Parliament will not be proportionally increased as other Northern states like Bihar or UP,” he said.
Speaking to this newspaper, DMK MP Tiruchi Siva said that the devolution of funds to Southern states by the Finance Commission is a major concern for Tamil Nadu. “It is unfair that the Southern states are being penalised for successfully controlling population growth. The formula for allocation of funds based on population should be relooked at,” said Siva.
Echoing the view, DMK MP M M Abdulla told this newspaper that the southern states shouldn’t lose seats through the delimitation exercise.
Concerns on delimitation
India’s changing demographic landscape with significant changes in population shares between states is expected to have substantial political implications, especially regarding electoral representation or the allocation of state-wise parliamentary seats and central revenue transfers to the states, said Dr Srinivas Goli, an Associate Professor specialising in Demography at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS). As per the estimates from the National Population Commission report for India and states, the projected population shares of Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan will experience a notable rise in the coming decades, while all other southern states, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh and Maharashtra would experience a significant decline in population shares.
“This uneven population growth and allocation of parliamentary seats based on population size thereby have ignited a political debate on the possible loss of political representation for some states, once the freeze on the boundary of the constituencies, based on the 1971 population, is lifted,” Dr Goli added.
Is the fertility rate declining?
In a written reply on December 6, Union health minister J P Nadda said, “As per the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of India stands at 2.0 in NFHS-5 (2019–21) from 2.7 in NFHS-3 (2005–06).” He, however, skillfully sidestepped the pressing question of whether the government intends to draft any legislation imposing restrictions on population growth, specifically a cap that would limit families to a maximum of two children.
According to the latest report from the Sample Registration System (2022), an interesting demographic trend has emerged across India. Four states stand out with notably higher total fertility rates: Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, with figures of 3.0, 2.7, 2.6, and 2.4 children per woman, respectively. In stark contrast, most other Indian states achieved fertility rates below the replacement level — defined as two children per woman — or are very close to this benchmark. Regions in northern India, such as Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir, and Haryana, showcase particularly low fertility rates, indicative of changing social dynamics and family planning practices. Similarly, eastern states like West Bengal and Odisha have also reported low fertility rates, reflecting broader demographic shifts across the country. This data highlights the diverse reproductive trends in India and suggests significant regional variations in family size and planning.
Discussing the demographic shifts over the past 50 years, Professor Udaya S Mishra, a faculty member in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) in Mumbai, which operates under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, said, “The demographic change in India during last 50 years qualifies to a pace of transition that is healthy and has its inherent regional divide which helps in internal regional adjustment as regard sustaining the population.”
Dr Goli said, India completed its demographic transition in just 45 years when the onset of fertility decline occurred in the mid-1970s and was completed in 2020. Although the total fertility rates of several states of India are similar or lesser than those of European and North American countries, the country is far behind in terms of its per capita incomes and human development indicators compared to these countries. “For example, while Andhra Pradesh’s TFR is the same as Switzerland, its per capita income is 28 times less than that of Switzerland. Similarly, differences can be observed in other development indicators such as education and health status.”
He noted that several states in India are currently grappling with significantly low fertility rates. In particular, urban areas across four of these states have recorded a startling total fertility rate (TFR) of just 1.2, which categorises them as experiencing ultra-low fertility levels. He explained that these categories — lowest-fertility (with a TFR of less than 1.4) and ultra-low fertility (with a TFR of less than 1.2) — pose serious long-term challenges. They can fundamentally disrupt the support ratios, meaning fewer working-age adults will be available to support an increasingly ageing population in the future.
He said that TFR of anything less than 1.6 is concerning but manageable. According to him, the ideal situation is to maintain a TFR of 1.8 to 2. All five South Indian states have TFR of less than 1.8 with the highest in Karnataka (1.6) and lowest in Tamil Nadu (1.4). This trend reflects significant regional demographic shifts, indicating changing family dynamics and reproductive choices.
Declining fertility
One reason behind the declining fertility rate could be the aggressive population control measure during the 80s and 90s. Other factors like fast-paced urbanisation, improvement in educational status, especially of women, along with rising marriage age and access to abortion played a crucial role too. Women empowerment, however, played a major role in deciding the size of their family. What also weighed on the minds of couples was the rising cost of living along with expenditure on education, health care and housing.
“It is not merely the contraceptive but also development transition that has a bearing on sharp reduction in fertility which is not that easily reversible as imagined by the political masters through incentivisation,” said Prof Mishra. Comparisons with Nordic countries and South Korea have been drawn. However, Prof Mishra said, a comparison of levels with Nordic countries sounds naïve given our size and diversity. “Our focus should be on making the most of the human capital at hand that needs to be nurtured and reap the potential. This challenge is overlooked which remains quite significant in the face of technological changes and evolving labour market dynamics.”
Ground reality
Muttreja said that asking women to have more children, as some leaders suggest, undermines their autonomy and ignores systemic issues like rising costs of childcare and healthcare. “Instead of coercion, we need policies that support families — affordable childcare, parental leave, and workplace flexibility. Demographic challenges like aging populations can be managed with thoughtful solutions, not regressive diktats. Women’s choices must be respected if we are to build a progressive, equitable future for India,” she said.
According to Dr Vasundhara Rangaswamy, a primary care physician in rural Tamil Nadu, the government’s job should not be to tell people how many kids they should produce. Instead, it should focus on providing food, proper health services closer to homes, education, and allowing people to decide how many kids they want, she said.
Drawing a stark comparison between rural and urban India, she said she has come across health facilities with no blood bank, ambulance services, ultrasound machines or transportation services to cater to pregnant women.
She said that there is still a preference for a male child, and cited an example of a woman delivering her fifth or sixth female child in rural Tamil Nadu. On seeing the girl child, the woman, who had undergone a few medical abortions, started howling and told her and other doctors how much money it would cost her to get “a male child”. The father said they would not be accepted in the community and ran away along with the mother-in-law, leaving the mother alone with the girl child.
“No one should tell a woman how many kids that person should have. Rather, take care of her health – both mental and physical health. The government must pull up its socks and focus on reaching out to people even in the country’s remotest corners with better healthcare and education systems.”
Concern over ageing population
As fertility rates decline, a significant concern arises regarding the ageing population. The issue at hand is not simply that India is experiencing demographic shifts but rather that this shift is occurring rapidly and within a socio-economic context that is less favourable. Dr Goli pointed out that while France and Sweden took 120 years and 80 years, respectively, to see their ageing populations double from 7% to 14%, India is set to undergo this transition in a remarkably short span of just 28 years.
According to the UNFPA Ageing Report, 2023, more than 40% of the older individuals in India are in the poorest wealth quintile, including nearly 19% living without an income. “India’s population ageing will thus put increased financial pressure on provision of old-age support systems, and particularly for Southern states where population aged 65+ was already 9% by 2021 and expected to grow further in the coming decades.”
Central India would remain young for three more decades, while the southern region and a few of the northern, western, and eastern Indian states would start experiencing an ageing crisis, he said.
Demographic imbalance?
Religion-wise differences in fertility has long been a debate in India, with specific religious communities often under “scrutiny for higher fertility rates”. However, total fertility differentials among communities are no longer a significant concern in India, as fertility rates are converging fast among all socio-religious groups, said Dr Goli. As per the latest estimates from 2019-21, TFR among Hindus is 1.94, Muslims 2.36, Christians 1.88, and Sikhs 1.61.
“The pace of decline is seen to be faster among Muslims, compared to other religious groups. For instance, while the fertility in the last two decades dropped by 30% among Hindus, the corresponding decline among Muslims was by 35% and it is supposed to be in absolute convergence, by 2030 if current trends continue. Also, it is observed that fertility among Muslims in the South is lower than that of Hindus from several northern and western parts of India, thus there are no such concerns regarding fertility rates of a particular religious community,” he said.
Need for census
Experts said the need for the hour is for the government to conduct a census, which has been delayed. “Census is quite essential and this last 14 years have seen a dramatic change in population composition, familial transition that needs to be recognised. Only census only can reveal it. Absence of a census without any dilution like caste census and self-enumeration would perhaps be an eye-opener on the transformation realised in this period,” said Prof Mishra.
