2024 is set to be the elections to watch in Odisha. The developments out of the blue that lingered on for over a fortnight threatened to derail the poll preps in both the camps of the ruling BJD and the principal Opposition BJP. Things have gone back to square one, but the playing field has raised the stakes to the highest level for both.
Erstwhile allies turned sworn enemies, the alliance plans of the BJD and the BJP started as two principal political rivals heading to consummate an unexpected union just ahead of the 2024 polls. After dragging for more than two weeks, the clamour slowly gradually faded into whimpers and finally emerged as a ‘whodunnit.’ Who wanted the alliance? What were the compelling reasons? Why exactly did the talks collapse? Who were the main actors of the negotiation?
Of course, there were clear indications that the BJP was inclined towards the pact as part of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s grand vision of ‘Chaar Sau Paar’ by presenting a grander NDA, uniting old partners while making new friends on the way. The BJD’s response too was more than effusive and warm. The regional outfit under Naveen Patnaik is battling anti-incumbency, voter fatigue and headed into a critical phase of transition. The future of the party needs to be secured too.
Yet, there is so little communication and so much hush-hush from both the outfits. Ideally, it must be the stated responsibility of political parties to communicate with their leaders on such significant decisions. From what we have seen so far, it clearly does not matter because most leaders on both the sides were in complete dark about the undercurrent. It is strange that the two major political forces – one, a national behemoth and the other, torch-bearer of regional identity - which swear by democratic values in their respective organisations have chosen to adopt a stoic silence on why they sought each other’s alliance right before such an all-important election.
Now that the grand plan has gone sideways, it’s business as usual for both the parties. Expect the fight to get ugly, far more acrimonious than 2019. It is going to be fire for fire. Because, the stakes are higher than ever. For BJP’s state unit led by Manmohan Samal, it is perform or perish. Samal held his ground from day 1 that the party has all it takes to go at it alone. The insistence was in face of the knowledge that the alliance plan came right from the top. The trust in the state unit and its senior leaders’ confidence of an improved performance in the Lok Sabha and state Assembly elections is a massive show of faith by the central leadership of BJP.
Much before the disruptive alliance plans came, the BJP state unit certainly ‘appeared’ charged. It was galvanised by the Modi magic and riding on the Ram Temple gains. For once, it looked confident of taking the BJD head on ever since their bitter break-up in 2009. On its part, the BJD showed nerves by unleashing freebies at a frenetic pace for all sections of its constituents. But the regional party looked prepared for the polls, like it always did. The two weeks of alliance talks have had different impact on the two parties. It seemed to have taken the shine off BJP’s zeal with the rank and file of the party confused about the top leadership’s strategy. However, now that the state unit has been granted its wish, it would be expected to take the fight to the BJD camp with its ubiquitous Modi Ki Guarantee narrative.
Another huge factor will be Union Minister Dharmendra Pradhan, the most popular face of BJP in the state. Often labelled by the BJD as the ‘outsider’ for his Rajya Sabha nominations, he undeniably has been the face of the party in Odisha since Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. Now that he has returned to direct elections in the state after 15 years and will fight from Sambalpur Parliamentary constituency, the impact of his nomination is expected to be far bigger on the party’s performance in both Lok Sabha and Assembly polls.
A substantial improvement in BJP’s fortunes, not just his win, will raise his stakes considerably in Modi Parivar and Odisha politics. He is going to be the man to watch out for.
For the BJD, it will be a different story. Naveen is seeking a record-breaking sixth term as CM. Even the BJP camp would grudgingly admit that BJD has the upper hand in the Assembly elections but would it manage its proclaimed 3/4th majority? The numbers will be decisive. The BJD supremo continues to be the most popular face in the state and the party will expect his magic to work. But it is VK Pandian, Naveen’s most trusted lieutenant and man-in-charge, who is working the plans. There will be a mountain of expectations of him to take BJD to a resounding victory for the sixth time. How he handles the 2024 elections will redefine the future of BJD as well as his own standing in the regional party.
Siba Mohanty
Resident Editor, Odisha
sibamohanty@newindianexpress.com
