Amethi and Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh have always been under the spotlight in every election regardless of the candidates who have been fielded.
This time around, after intense speculation till the last day of filing of nominations, Rahul Gandhi decided – or was he persuaded? – to contest from Rae Bareli, while old party loyalist KL Sharma was fielded against Smriti Irani in Amethi. The question now on everyone’s minds is: what will work in both seats - loyalty towards family, caste or party?
Before the 2019 election, the two seats were represented by members of the Nehru-Indira family (except on a few occasions). For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), both seats remained a challenge. Finally, Smriti Irani won Amethi in 2019.
It is anybody's guess that if Rahul could lose last time from Amethi, he could do so this time from Rae Bareli as well, regardless of the emotional letter penned by mother Sonia in February wherein she announced she would not be contesting. She had made an exhortation then to the voters, writing, "I know you will stand by me and my family in future, just as in the past..."
As things stand today, an influential Thakur leader Dinesh Pratap Singh, a long-time Congress functionary, is the BJP candidate against Rahul in Rae Bareli. To bolster Sonia's appeal to the voters, Priyanka Vadra is camping and campaigning in both seats whereas everyone hopes that Sonia just might visit for a few hours to make an emotional pitch for Rahul.
The fact that it was not easy for the party to decide candidates for both seats is evident from the long-drawn suspense and series of meetings before finalisation.
As the Congress leaders were holding parleys regarding both seats, posters appeared in Amethi on April 24 seeking Robert Vadra as the Congress candidate. There was no official Congress reaction and Smriti Irani filed her papers in Amethi on April 29.
The Congress meetings continued amid speculations that Rahul was reluctant to contest from Amethi. On May 2, the BJP announced Dinesh Pratap Singh as its candidate from Rae Bareli, and, as if waiting for this cue, the Congress on May 3 morning announced Rahul as its candidate from Rae Bareli, and KL Sharma from Amethi.
Priyanka factor
The presence of Priyanka has made things smoother for the party in Rae Bareli. Her emotional connect remains strong especially with women and elderly people, and she brings in an element of novelty and grandeur to the campaign, which the people of Rae Bareli have been used to for long.
People of Rae Bareli have been used to receiving special treatment and Sonia Gandhi's announcement did make them feel disappointed. But the fact that it is Rahul as a candidate from there has enthused them.
Professor Hilal Ahmad, a veteran political analyst and social scholar, says the Congress holds a special place for people in both places and "the opposition alliance (between Congress and Samajwadi Party) will pose a tough challenge for the BJP."
The Rae Bareli constituency has seen the dominance of the Thakur (Rajput) caste especially in Assembly elections for the last 40 years.
In the 2022 state election, four assembly seats were won by the Samajwadi Party and two by the BJP, and three of the winners belonged to this caste.
Dinesh Pratap Singh belongs to one such influential Thakur family. He had been with the Congress for long and served as a Member of the Legislative Council (MLC) in 2010 and 2016. He quit the party to join BJP in 2018 and contested unsuccessfully against Sonia Gandhi in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. He is now a BJP MLC and a minister in the Yogi Adityanath government.
Rahul filed his nomination from Wayanad in faraway Kerala on April 3, where polling took place on April 26. News reports suggest that the people of Wayanad have not reacted well to him choosing to contest from Rae Bareli also. It is widely believed that Rahul turned out to be a reluctant contestant as he could not risk a defeat a second time from Amethi. Finally, the Congress decided on Rae Bareli as a safe choice for him.
He might get through because of the emotional connect and the support for the dynasty among the local people, as party supporters say.
"Rahul need not even come here for campaigning for himself. But the presence of Priyanka and the appeal from Sonia Ji is enough to ensure his win," said Banwari Mishra, a veteran school teacher and a Congress loyalist.
Loyalty quotient
In contrast, the campaign in Amethi is rather drab with people acknowledging that Sharma is not an active politician but a constituency manager for the two seats – something which Sharma vehemently denies. Even Congress sympathisers say Sharma may not be a suitable replacement for Rahul Gandhi.
Interestingly, Amethi was represented last by a non-family member – also a Sharma – in 1991 and 1996, when Satish Sharma, won from here. He was a long-time pilot with the then Indian Airlines but a close friend of late Rajiv Gandhi.
At a recent rally, Priyanka Vadra, Ashok Gehlot and other Congress leaders spoke eloquently about KL Sharma's contribution towards strengthening the party in the two constituencies. His selfless work and dedication towards the party were highlighted as his qualities, something which has not gone unnoticed by the local people.
Post-Rahul Amethi
In Amethi, the post-Rahul era has been marked by regular visits by Smriti Irani. Her being earlier the Minister for Textiles and now the Minister for Women and Child Welfare and Minority Affairs, has helped in implementing many schemes for the area. She recently shifted to a house built by her near Gauriganj.
In any case, Amethi has been in the limelight more for being the seat that Rahul Gandhi lost, rather than the one which Smriti won. It remains to be seen whether the people here would like to back a representative of the party that lost, or the winner herself.
Speculations had been rife till the last moment that the Congress could field Rahul from Rae Bareli and Priyanka from Amethi to give out a message that the party was keen to regain lost ground as part of its comeback in the state. But that did not happen. Now, regardless of the result, the two family members will remain under attack by the BJP who will say they chose the easy way out.
