LUCKNOW: Two days before voting in the 2022 state elections in western Uttar Pradesh, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made an unprecedented move. Alongside hundreds of BJP workers, he went door-to-door seeking support from voters, particularly Jats, in favour of BJP candidates.
This occurred immediately after the saffron party's failed discussions for a pre-poll alliance with the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), led by Jayant Chaudhary, a significant Jat leader and the grandson of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh.
Jayant opted to stay aligned with the Samajwadi Party and famously declared, "Main koi chavanni nahin jo palat jaoon" (I am not a coin that flips).
Cut to Feb 2024.
Two months before the Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi conferred Bharat Ratna on former PM Chaudhary Charan Singh.
And Jayant reacted to this saying: "Dil Jeet Liya." (Won our hearts).
Long story short, the BJP had won Jayant's heart as well as the Jat votes.
Solving the Jat puzzle was a major strategic win for the saffron party, as it facilitated their entry into the challenging political landscape of Uttar Pradesh's Wild West in the lead-up to the election.
The Jats constitute a mere 2 percent of Uttar Pradesh's voters.
Nonetheless, political analysts say the influence of Jats stems from their concentration in approximately a dozen districts of western UP, where they make up 20–25 percent of the total voting population.
The influence of the 'Jat factor' is palpable as the BJP—which continues to reign supreme in the state since 2014—has now joined hands with the RLD, the party that is perceived to advocate for the Jat community.
This is despite always having kept the 'Jat card' in their back pockets and managing to pull it in UP right around elections.
The Jats are primarily farmers and wield significant economic influence in the region because of their financial muscles.
The extent of Jat influence on votes is evident from the 2009 polls, where a national party like the BJP secured only three seats in western UP while a relatively smaller party, RLD (then a minor partner of the NDA), won five seats due to unflinching support from the community.
On the other hand, experts note that in the 2014 polls, which occurred in the aftermath of the 2013 Muzaffarnagar riots, Jats were entirely polarised in favour of the BJP, resulting in a sweeping victory for the saffron party in the region.
This trend continued even in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
However, alarm bells rang for the BJP in the 2022 Assembly polls when the Jats were divided between their loyalty to their leader Jayant, who was part of the SP coalition, and the BJP.
And the farmer-dominant community drifted away from the BJP over the Union government's controversial farm laws. Although the three farm laws were withdrawn before the polls, the damage was already done.
The BJP's loss translated into the RLD's victory.
It resulted in a sharp jump in RLD's vote share, with the number of seats going up from one in 2017 to eight in 2022.
It was no wonder that the BJP brass went ahead in an overdrive to lure Jayant, despite strong opposition from the party's own Jat leaders.
"The thinking was that with RLD by our side, whatever discontent among farmers is remaining would also go away, and Jats will have no dilemma over which camp to support," said a senior BJP functionary.
Their overall number may be small, but their concentration in the sugar belt makes them formidable in the western region.
“Jats wield a lot of influence in society because of their dominant social status. Therefore, their firepower goes much beyond their own community," added the BJP leader.
Top Lok Sabha constituencies with large Jat voter base
Baghpat: 4 lakh
Mathura: 2.15 lakh
Fatehpur Sikri: 2.1 lakh
Kairana: 1.75 lakh
Amroha: 1.70 lakh
