LUCKNOW: After the humiliating defeat the BJP faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Uttar Pradesh all eyes are now set on the state's Assembly polls that is scheduled for 2027.
After emerging as a surprise CM of UP after BJP’s mammoth victory in 2017, Yogi consolidated his position with his performance on several counts by delivering the benefits of welfare schemes, marked improvement in law and order, boosting development and infra projects and above all pushing Hindutva politics while strengthening the saffron citadel in the state.
Riding on Yogi government’s performance, the BJP trounced formidable SP-BSP alliance quite convincingly in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and stormed back to power with a decisive mandate for a second successive term in 2022 Assembly election.
It was seen as an affirmation to his style of governance, stern action against crime syndicates, conducive weather for investment and unapologetic approach to Hindutva.
In 2024 Lok Saba election, besides, PM Modi, who was the face of the BJP election campaign, the party relied hugely on Yogi as its star campaigner to counter the opposition.
Having addressed over 170 public meetings, 13 road shows across the country, Yogi was one of the most sought after campaigners for the party in different states. Punjab BJP chief Sunil Jakhar had written a personal letter to Yogi seeking his time for a few public rallies in the state.
Yogi visited every parliamentary constituency of UP at least twice holding half a dozen poll rallies daily during the polls. However, despite all the efforts, the BJP faced a tough challenge from the INDIA bloc in the Varanasi region, assumed to be the BJP bastion where PM Modi struck a hat trick notwithstanding a considerably dipped margin.
On the other seats -- Ghazipur, Chandauli, Jaunpur, Machhlishahr, Ballia, Robertsganj and Azamgarh -- under the influence of the Varanasi parliamentary constituency, BJP fared poorly.
However, the party managed to save its fort in carpet hub of India—Bhadohi—where it was facing the challenge by TMC candidate Lalitesh Pati Tripathi.
On the other, in Gorakhpur division, the home turf of Yogi Adityanath, the BJP not only checked the INDIA bloc offensive, but also managed to save its fort by winning five seats -- Gorakhpur, Maharajganj, Deoria, Kushinagar and Bansgaon seats.
Yogi stayed put in Gorakhpur to monitor and give a push to the party campaign there till the voting day. His effort paid dividends in the form of victories in Domariyaganj and Gonda seats as well.
“Yogi Adityanath, not only as the UP CM but also as the Mahant of revered Gorakshnath Muthh enjoys considerable clout in the state. He can pull out the party from the quagmire of possible defeat and take it to victory in 2027 Assembly polls. It was well evident in 2022 UP polls when despite an SP surge, Yogi ensured that the BJP returned to power with a convincing majority,” says Prof AK Mishra, a political scientist.
After a weak LS polls show, the political experts feel that a weak Centre would not essentially mean Yogi can be dislodged in the upcoming elections given his popularity in the state.
“The party top brass should dispel the buzz ringing in political corridors that CM Yogi is being sidelined and that there is ‘more the needed’ interference of the Centre in his day-to-day governance,” says Prof Mishra adding that the BJP paid for such a narrative floated by AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal in the middle of the election that Yogi will be removed after six months from his post.
“No senior party leader found it proper to come out and negate the notion then and there,” says Prof Mishra.
The political experts also feel that the BJP should use Yogi’s charisma as he has mass appeal to regain the lost ground in eastern UP where the BJP has suffered worst defeat since 2014 Lok Sabha election.
A number of state BJP leaders feel the pinch of the limited role of Yogi Adityanath in the selection of candidates given the strong anti- incumbency factor against a majority of the two and three-term MPs in UP.
Among 64 BJP winners of the 2019 Lok Sabha election, 49 were repeated of which 27, facing anti-incumbency lost, only 22 could retain their seats in 2024 election in the state.
As per sources, during a meeting, the state leaders had briefed the central leadership about the anti-incumbency against the candidates but to their surprise all got tickets.
The top sources in the party also claim that Yogi was not in favour of sparing seat for OP Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP). He is believed to have stalled Rajbhar’s inclusion in his cabinet after Dara Singh Chauhan, the SP turncoat, lost the Ghosi by-poll.
But the selectors fielded Rajbhar’s son Arvind Rajbhar from Ghosi despite adverse ground reports.
When the campaign started in west Uttar Pradesh, Adityanath’s public meetings were limited to a few seats as party leaders from the region and RLD led the campaign. However, after the second phase, his rallies were increased following the feedback that going was tough.
