AHMEDABAD: Gujarat is a state where BJP had won all the 26 seats in both the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The party began the 2024 general elections believing that an encore was an inevitability. But ahead of the third phase of polling on Tuesday, what was initially presumed to be easily achievable for the BJP is not proving to be entirely so.
The landscape has lately shifted. Local controversies, simmering social discontent, and internal discord among BJP ranks have reshaped expectations.
Seven Lok Sabha seats namely, Surendranagar, Sabarkantha, Banaskantha, Rajkot, Anand, Patan, and Junagadh are seeing fierce contests, where victory margins may narrow significantly even if they manage to avoid slipping out of the BJP's grasp.
Surendranagar
Here candidates from the Talpada Koli and Chunwaliya Koli communities vied for tickets creating a headache for the BJP. People insisted that the BJP give the ticket to someone from the Talpada Koli community. But, Chandubhai Sihora, hailing from the Chunwaliya Koli faction, was given ticket by the BJP.
The Talpada Koli constitute a significant portion, around 3 lakh, of the approximately four and a half lakh Koli voters in the area. What has spiced up the battle is the Congress nominating Ritvik Makwana from the Talpada Koli community. Furthermore, the Kshatriya movement, gaining momentum across Gujarat against the BJP, could prove a pivotal factor in deciding fortunes in this constituency.
Throughout the campaign trail, the BJP leaders encountered resistance in urban and rural settings alike. The palpable discontent among the Talpada Koli and Kshatriya communities poses a potential threat to BJP's prospects in this seat.
Sabarkantha
In Sabarkantha, the political arena is heating up with former Chief Minister Amar Singh Chaudhary's son, Tushar Chaudhary, stepping into the fray as the Congress candidate.
In a twist of events, Shobhana Baraiya, spouse of a former Congress MLA who defected to the BJP, is also vying for the seat. Initially, the BJP had nominated Bhikhaji Thakor for this constituency, but amid controversy surrounding his surname, he withdrew his candidacy, triggering widespread protests. Supporters of Bhikhaji staged demonstrations across the Sabar Kantha district, expressing their discontent with the BJP for choosing Shobana instead.
The opposition is not limited to Bhikhaji's supporters alone. BJP MLA Ramanlal Vora encountered resistance and several other BJP leaders faced opposition during their rallies.
With the Thakor community commanding 20 percent of the votes in this constituency, they could sway the election if they choose to go against the BJP to express their anger at Bhikhaji being dropped.
Banaskantha
In Banaskantha, the political stage is set with Ganiben Thakor, renowned for her victory over the current Speaker of the Gujarat Assembly, Shankar Chaudhary, in the 2017 assembly election, now emerging as the Congress candidate. Meanwhile, BJP has nominated Rekha Chaudhary, perceived to be aligned with the Shankar Chaudhary faction.
The Chaudhary and Thakor communities hold significant sway in this constituency which has 19 lakh voters. Historically, the outcome of elections here hinges on the support of these communities. Despite speculation that Parbat Patel, the BJP leader who won the 2019 Lok Sabha election, was being considered as a potential candidate against Rekha Chaudhary, he did not receive the ticket. This has led to claims that Parbat Patel's supporters are inactive.
Many highlight Ganiben's active presence among the people, and underline Rekha's perceived lack of experience.
The campaign gained momentum with the presence of Priyanka Gandhi on the final day, indicating the fact that the Congress too believes they are in with a chance.
Rajkot
Rajkot, traditionally viewed as a stronghold for the BJP, has witnessed unexpected outcomes in the past. It is another matter that former Congress leaders who once shaped those results have now crossed over to the BJP. The electorate in this constituency is predominantly composed of Patidar, Koli, and Kshatriya voters.
BJP candidate Parushottam Rupala's remarks regarding the Kshatriya community have sparked opposition from Kshatriya voters across Gujarat. In response to Rupala's candidacy, the Congress has nominated Paresh Dhanani, a prominent leader from the Leua Patidar Community, who previously defeated Rupala in the Amreli Legislative Assembly.
The ongoing Kshatriya movement has heightened attention on this seat capturing the interest of the entire state.
Anand
In Anand, the Kshatriya movement's influence and rural dissatisfaction with the ruling party have become pronounced.
The Congress, once a formidable force in the region with a robust network, is gaining ground.
The party has nominated former Congress president Amit Chavda to contest, while Mitesh Patel represents the BJP. Campaign dynamics intensified with the circulation of viral videos targeting the BJP candidate.
Simultaneously, the impact of the Kshatriya movement has resonated in Anand, with the community staging multiple protests during meetings held by BJP leaders.
Amit Chavda's charisma and his family's deep-rooted connections within the locality have also bolstered the Congress' prospects.
Patan
In Patan, the electoral battle narrows down to a face-off between BJP's Bharat Singh Thakor and Congress's Chandanji Talaji Thakor.
Chandanji Thakor enjoys a favorable reputation within the Thakor community. This constituency comprises assembly seats like Sidhpur, Patan, Chansma, Randhanpur, Vadgam, Kheralu, and Sidhpur. While BJP typically holds strong ground in Kheralu and Sidhpur, Congress' influence prevails in Randhanpur and Patan.
Moreover, Patidar community leader and Congress MLA Kirit Patel hails from Patan. Vadgam, on the other hand, is characterized by its Kshatriya, minority, and Dalit demographics. The outcome of the Patan seat hinges on factors such as the influence of the Kshatriya movement and the support from minority voters.
Junagadh
In Junagadh, the resistance against BJP candidate Rajesh Chudasma extends beyond surface appearances.
Alongside allegations regarding his involvement in the suicide of a prominent doctor from Veraval, local leaders express discontent with his leadership.
Critics highlight Chudasma's notably low participation in public-oriented initiatives, irrespective of party affiliations. The Visavadar seat within the Junagadh constituency is witnessing the stiffest level of opposition toward Chudasma.
Additionally, Congress leader Hira Jotwa's standing, the ripple effects of the Kshatriya movement, and opposition stemming from the suicide of a doctor from the Lohana Thakkar community compound Chudasma's challenges.
