So, who blinked first? It might be too early for an informed analysis on the truce after four days of Indo-Pak conflict as information is rather sketchy.
The ceasefire violation within a few hours further complicated matters. But the initiative for a telephonic call for talks on Saturday afternoon came from the Pakistani side.
Pakistan's Director General of Military Operations called his Indian counterpart and both arrived on a ceasefire agreement.
The seeds for the conflict were sown by Pakistan army chief Asim Munir as he recently called Kashmir India's jugular vein and regurgitated the two-nation theory that led to India's partition.
"Our stance is very clear, it was our jugular vein, it will be our jugular vein, and we will not forget it. We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle," Gen Munir said while addressing the first Overseas Pakistanis Convention in Islamabad on April 17, attended by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Pakistanis living abroad.
Also, Pakistan's footprint in the Pahalgam massacre of Indian tourists were recently revealed in a news media expose. For, a top US-based space tech company found a sudden spike in orders for high-resolution satellite images of Pahalgam and its surrounding areas barely two months ago from a Pakistan-based geo-spatial company, Business Systems International Pvt Ltd (BSI), the Print reported.
The Pakistani firm is linked to federal crimes in the US. Between February 2 and 22, BSI placed at least 12 orders—double the usual number— with Maxar Technologies. BSI became Maxer's partner last year. Orders for Pahalgam satellite images started appearing on the portal in June 2024, months after the partnership deal. The deal is now off.
There you have a smoking gun, possibly enough for the US turning the screws on Pakistan's hybrid leadership with Gen Munir at the helm. No wonder, US President Donald Trump sought to take credit for drumming some commonsense and forcing Pakistan to step back.
The man at the helm
General Syed Asim Munir Ahmed Shah, born in 1968, became the 11th chief of the Pakistan Army on November 29, 2022, replacing General Qamar Javed Bajwa. He had two major stints with the powerful intelligence directorate of Pakistan Army, was director of military intelligence in 2016 and took over as the director general of Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) in 2018, Pakistan's deep state.
His ISI tenure was truncated after his relations with then prime minister Imran Khan, who is now in jail, soured. When Imran was arrested, he had publicly implicated Munir for playing a role in his arrest. Imran's successor Shehbaz Sharif chose Gen Munir as the Pakistan Army chief. Imran had tried to spike Gen Munir's appointment at army chief and lobbied to instal his trusted officer Gen Faiz Hameed in the powerful seat instead.
Saddled with a sinking economy that survives on foreign bailouts, runaway inflation, home-grown insurgency and popular outrage over the jailing of Imran, Gen Munir possibly sought to deflect attention with his provocative anti-India statements. Pahalgam happened soon after, suggesting the two were linked. Imran's fallout with the army had eroded the latter's clout. Under Gen Munir, the militablishment is back in control of the nation.
Munir had headed the ISI when tensions between India and Pakistan escalated after the Pulwama suicide attack in February 2019 that resulted in the death of 40 CRPF personnel. He is said to have been among the people shaping Pakistan’s response and security measures since then.
Interestingly, Gen Munir has his roots, like Pervez Musharraf, in India, which in his case is in Jalandhar, Punjab. Peddling the two-nation theory, he said on April 17, "Our religions are different, our customs are different, our traditions are different, our thoughts are different, our ambitions are different. That was the foundation of the two-nation theory that was laid there. We are two nations, we are not one nation."
He advised his audience to tell the story of Pakistan creation to their children "so that they don't forget that our forefathers thought we were different from Hindus in every possible aspect of life."
His role model
The Taliban is Pakistan deep state’s baby as are other India-facing terrorist outfits. Through the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan, the Pakistan army sought to extend its strategic reach into Afghanistan.
But the Durand line between Afghanistan and Pakistan is now active, with Taliban terror attacks deep inside Pakistan and retaliatory action. Add to that the continuing insurgency in Balochistan, and Gen Munir's finds himself challenged from every side.
Munir is known to adore Gen Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq and model himself after him. It was Zia who operationalised the doctrine of "bleeding India with a thousand cut"s by using terror as an instrument of state policy.
From Gen Parvez Musharraf to the current Pakistan defence minister Khawaja Asif, many well-placed people have openly talked about Pakistan’s history of supporting, training and funding terrorist organisations. Terror groups have been the extended arm of the Pakistani army, which sponsors, funds and trains them and uses them as proxies.
Khwaja Asif’s admission came in the wake of Operation Sindoor. He said Pakistan supported terrorist groups for three decades, did the “dirty work” on behalf of the West during the Soviet-Afghan war and the US-led war against the Taliban following the 9/11 attacks. That policy was a mistake, he said, adding Pakistan paid a heavy price for its actions.
Tryst with power
While the economy is in tatters and people don’t have enough jobs and food, Pakistan's coalition government endorsed an 18% increase in defence spending to over Rs 2.5 trillion in the next budget. It has been 77 years since Pakistan came into existence on August 14, 1947. The Pakistani Army's first tryst with governance came in October 1958 when the then Governor General Iskander Mirza abrogated the 1956 Constitution and promoted General Ayub Khan as army chief. Khan led a coup in 1958 that overthrew President Iskandar Ali Mirza, who left abroad and never came back. Khan became the President of Pakistan for 44 months. Ayub Khan decided that Pakistan was "not ready for parliamentary democracy and needed Army rule."
'Constitution insulted'
A guiding document which could have bailed the nation during the crisis never saw the light of the day as the Pakistan army always cut its connection. Ayub Khan had tasted unbridled power till his retirement in 1969. But, it was him who presided over installing the next boss, General Yahya Khan who, like Ayub Khan, assumed the role of chief martial law administrator. Yahya later abolished the Constitution of 1962 which had made the government Presidential.
Gen Yahya Khan resigned in December 1971. When his successor Zulfikar Ali Bhutto tried to amend the Constitution proclaiming Pakistan a democratic country, but he was tried and hanged by the then army chief.
The army was back at the helm of the country in 1977 with Gen Zia-ul-Haq in charge. He led till 1988 until his death in an air crash. The nation's reins went back into civilian hands - Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif - but within a little over a decade, Gen Pervez Musharraf staged a bloodless coup in 1999 and stayed in power till 2008. Rampant corruption marked the rule of Bhutto and Sharif, making the army popular again.
When Nawaz Sharif tried to sack army chief Gen Musharraf for orchestrating the Kargil attack without seeking permission, the latter overthrew his government and declared martial law on October 14, 1999.
Back to the present, Gen Munir is heading what is being called a hybrid government. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has little say in policy matters. People know that the most powerful man sits in Rawalpindi, not Islamabad. But Gen Munir is doing a pretty shabby job at the helm.
The Munir doctrine on economy
At a recent meeting with business and industry leaders, the army chief outlined what is being called the Munir doctrine to take the ailing economy out of the ICU. A look:
Mineral sale
Gen Asim Munir hopes to put the country’s vast potential in terms of mineral and natural resources up for sale to lift the country’s stature to that of a G20 economy. Remember the US recently struck a deal with Ukraine for mineral export? It hopes to do a copycat deal with Pakistan, indication of which came from senior US State Department official Eric Meyer participating in an international minerals summit in Islamabad. It was aimed at attracting foreign investment in the country’s mining sector. Apart from gold and copper, Pakistan is rich in lithium used to make batteries, besides other minerals. Factor in the rather tepid US diplomacy to defuse the Indo-Pak war and it all begins to make ample sense. Munir hopes to tap the demographic advantage, as Pakistan is one of the youngest countries in the world. As many as 65% of its population is under 30 years of age. He aims to find gainful employment for them.
Structural economic reform
Plans to create a special task force for structural reforms in the Federal Board of Revenue for tax collection. Wants to bring the informal sector into the tax net by first documenting the economy. Says privatisation of loss making state-owned entities is under consideration. Indicates proposal to lift the minimum wage level substantially. At present, it is 32,000 rupees a month in Punjab.
‘Blast, Bulldoze, Disregard…’
Sees a strategic role for the new Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to strike a balance between military decision making and democratic governance to remove bureaucratic hurdles for attracting foreign direct investment. The SIFC has the mandate to ‘blast, bulldoze and disregard’ any and all obstacles in attracting foreign investment. Dreams of drawing big investments from West Asia amid murmurs that Saudi Arabia alone could be interested in investing up to $25 billion if all goes well. It's a big if though.
End to smuggling
Willing to clamp down on sugar and dollar smuggling by tightening porous borders. However, challenges await...
For real reforms, the military has to make meaningful monetary and political concessions. Aggressive taxing is the way forward, but the military itself tries to duck it.
Reducing electricity subsidies, negotiating pension schemes and limiting defence expenditure are significant challenges for both the political and military leaderships. Reducing civilian government to a rubber stamp does not inspire confidence.
The hybrid model of governance is by design loaded with civil-military tensions. For example, the control of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), was a bone of contention between the then PML-N government and the military.
Similarly, doubs remain if major industrial manufacturing will seek to relocate in the wake of Indo-Pak tension, rising extremism, political instability, regionally uncompetitive energy costs and limited infrastructure availability. And a lack of ease of doing business for small traders remains a major concern.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is no longer as reliant on Pakistan for defence as it was earlier, so claims of its mega investment could be wishful thinking.
Minions in uniform
Pakistani general who fought India and failed
General Douglas Gracey
When British India was partitioned in 1947, Gracey became Chief of Staff in the newly created GHQ, Pakistan before succeeding Frank Messervy as the Commander-in-Chief of the Pakistan Army in 1948. As Pakistan’s second commander-inchief, Gracey ordered regular army units in mid-1948 to counter Indian advances in Jammu and Kashmir. Indian forces were there in response to a request from then ruler King Hari Singh to help thwart invasion of ‘tribesmen’ from Pakistan. Gracey initially resisted Governor General Muhammad Ali Jinnah’s orders to deploy forces but caved in later as Indian forces gained ground. Gracey’s act is said to have helped Pakistan capture key areas of Jammu and Kashmir, which later came to be called Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK).
Akbar Khan, DSO
When Gracey initially refused to get involved in the Kashmir invasion, Jinnah secretly entrusted Akbar Khan to lead tribal forces into Kashmir. Under the pseudonym Gen Tariq, he brought thousands of armed tribesmen to Kashmir in military trucks, who unleashed a reign of terror on the residents of the princely state. Thus, Khan commanded the first India-Pakistan war over Kashmir. In doing so, he bypassed the orders of the Rawalpindi Military General Head Quarters headed by Gracey. However, after the war, Khan had a fallout with the Muslim League government. He was convicted of a coup, which he had planned with his close confidantes, to overthrow Prime Minister Liaquat Ali Khan. However, his plan was leaked to the PM and he had to spend five years in prison.
General Muhammad Musa Khan
Musa triggered the 1965 Indo-Pak War through Operation Gibraltar, a covert plan to infiltrate Jammu and Kashmir with guerrillas to spark an insurgency among local Muslims against the Indian government. However, the plan fell apart as Indian forces detected the plot and hit back aggressively, inflicting major losses on the Pakistani forces. Unable to bear the setback, Musa set in motion the next part of the plan to send in combat troops. This also backfired as India drove them back, crossing the international border and thus putting an end to the second Kashmir war. According to analysts, Musa was so confident of winning the war alone that he refused to share information even with the Pakistan Air Force about his misadventure in Kashmir.
General Yahya Khan
Yahya, both army chief and president, presided over the 1971 Indo-Pak war, triggered by Islamabad’s brutal crackdown on East Pakistan’s (now Bangladesh) independence movement. India’s support for Bangladesh led to a two-front war. Yahya’s efforts failed as he underestimated India’s military might. Pakistan lost its territory in the east, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. An estimated 93,000 Pakistan troops surrendered to India. Yahya resigned in disgrace and was replaced by his foreign minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto who put him under house arrest. He later had a stroke and did not play any further role in Pakistan’s military or political affairs. Bhutto, in a 1965 speech to the UN Security Council, declared a thousand-year war against India.
General Zia-ul-Haq
Zia came to power through a bloodless coup overthrowing Zulfikar Ali Bhutto. A ruthless hawk, he ramped up training of terror groups like Lashkar-e-Toiba and fuelling insurgency in Kashmir in the 1980s. It was during his tenure that Kashmir saw an uptick in Pakistan’s proxy warfare. Zia escalated tensions after India took control of the Siachen Glacier, the world’s highest battlefield, in 1984. This was a major strategic loss for Pakistan. Following this, Zia sought to amplify the influence of the terror groups in Kashmir, marking a dramatic shift in its proxy warfare. Analysts believe it was Zia’s policies that formalised Pakistan’s use of proxy warfare as a tool against India. He gave form to Bhutto's "thousand-year war" with the doctrine of bleeding India through a thousand cuts.
General Pervez Musharraf
As Army chief, Musharraf was the mastermind behind the 1999 Kargil war. The misadventure saw Pakistani troops and paramilitary forces infiltrate across the Line of Control to occupy high-altitude posts in Kargil in Ladakh. However, the initial gains of the Pakistani army were soon erased by Indian forces which launched a powerful counteroffensive to take back its territory. The Indian onslaught was backed by both air and artillery support. Pakistan had to retreat as it came under intense fire from Indian forces, accentuated by a stern warning from the US to de-escalate the conflict. The incident earned Pakistan the global infamy of a rogue nation, denting Musharraf’s image as a capable leader. The Kargil war also strained civilmilitary relations, as then prime minister Nawaz Sharif was reportedly against the operation.
General Qamar Javed Bajwa
Bajwa was the Army chief when the 2019 Pulwama attack happened, in which 40 CRPF personnel were killed after a Jaish-eMohammed suicide bomber triggered an explosion near the Indian troops’ convoy. India retaliated with airstrikes on the terror camps in Balakot in Pakistan. Bajwa oversaw Pakistan’s response, including the capture of an Indian pilot, who was later released to de-escalate matters. He later wanted to open talks with India but the then prime minister Imran Khan refused to play ball
