THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: On Thursday, Kerala will vote in its most critical assembly election that will determine not just the fate of its two major fronts, but also alter the course of its political trajectory.
The high-stakes polls, where the Left eyes Pinarayi 3.0 and the UDF a comeback after a decade, is a literal do-or-die battle for both. For the BJP-led NDA, this could be its last chance to make an impression on the Kerala electorate.
Being the only Left citadel in the country, it is necessary for the LDF to get continuity in office so as to remain relevant at the national level. While a thumping majority is what it aims for, even a narrow win would be a relief. On the other hand, losing the polls could lead to internal revolts, a possible realignment of the front, and fingers being pointed at its leader -- Pinarayi Vijayan. While a victory would add to his aura, the opposite would be a loss of face, and critics within the front may finally gather courage for an open onslaught.
However, it is the UDF that has more to gain or lose. The front, which is relying on anti-incumbency and minority consolidation to get it through, hopes for a comfortable majority. It would mean Congress’ return to the spotlight, winning back its political space at the state and national levels.
Leader of Opposition V D Satheesan could well claim political mileage though there would be other claimants like Ramesh Chennithala and K C Venugopal too. In case of a loss, the blame would squarely land on Satheesan’s shoulders. An electoral loss could lead to a total disintegration of the coalition, and a few allies could even part ways with the front.
As far as the NDA is concerned, it nurtures high hopes of clocking double digits, taking into account the conducive political environment. Winning at least a couple of seats will make BJP state president Rajeev Chandrasekhar more powerful in the party, while a poor show means not just loss of face but would also place him at the receiving end of his critics. For the NDA, not just winning seats but getting a decent vote share, too, is significant to remain in the state’s electoral picture.