NEW DELHI: The forecast of the IMD for September for the southwest monsoon indicates that it will be drier and hotter than usual. This is likely to increase the chances of classifying the overall monsoon season’s rainfall as being in the drought category. The IMD has predicted that the withdrawal of the monsoon may be on time, specifically on September 17.
The IMD has said that overall rainfall across the country in September is likely to be below normal (less than 91 per cent of the long period average), with the standout exceptions likely to be some parts of eastern India and adjoining central India, including Jharkhand, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, east Madhya Pradesh and parts of Bihar.
From June 1 to August 30, India received 603.7 mm of rainfall, which is 14 per cent deficient compared to the normal rainfall of 700.7 mm. The suppressed rainfall activity is attributed to the strong El Nino conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, where sea surface temperatures remain above normal.
El Nino is often associated with weaker monsoon rainfall in India. Stronger El Nino conditions are expected to intensify in the coming months. Currently, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean, which is unfavourable for monsoon rainfall. The reduction in rainfall may cause increased daytime and night time temperatures.