SRINAGAR: Veteran politician Ghulam Nabi Azad’s exit from Congress party and his decision of floating his own party to contest upcoming Assembly polls in Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir may hand over an electoral advantage to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Jammu region.
Jammu-based political analyst Rekha Choudhary believes that Azad’s leaving Congress and prospects of his own party entering the electoran area in the UT will definitely tilt the equation in favour of BJP, especially in Jammu region.
The BJP is eyeing to win most of the 43 Assembly seats allocated for Jammu region avtre the delimitation and the fragmentation of Congress vote bank will be an added advantage to the saffron party, she said.
In 2014, BJP had won 25 Assembly seats from Jammu region, which then till had 37 Assembly segments. After the abrogation of Article 370 and delimitation exercise, the Assembly seats in J&K has gone up from 83 to 90, with Jammu having 43 seats and Kashmir 47 seats.
Another political observer echoed Choudhary and said that the entry of Azad’s party will lead to further fragmentation of Congress and secular votes in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region comprising five districts of Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban and border districts of Poonch and Rajouri.
“The BJP was expected to do well in the main Jammu and in border districts of Kathua, Reasi, Samba and Udhampur but in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal, it would have been difficult for BJP to win seats. But now the situation on the ground is likely to change as the secular vote will get further divided and the BJP vote bank will remain intact,” he said.
A senior Congress leader too admitted that Azad’s quitting Congress and floating new party will definitely give advantage to the saffron party on some seats in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region. He said the votes on the seats in Congress strongholds in Jammu region will now get divided between Congress and Azad’s party and this may benefit BJP. In the Valley, he said, there would not be any impact as Kashmir politics is different from Jammu, especially after Article 370 revocation, it has turned very intense.
Sensing poll advantage, a BJP leader said that a leader of Azad’s stature quitting Congress after 50 years of association will definitely have some impact on the ground. “With Congress leaders deserting the party and joining ranks of other outfits or launching their parties as is possible in case of Azad, the Congress vote bank is expected to get fragmented and this will definitely benefit us in some areas,” he said.
Before the Azad episode, BJP was hopeful of winning 35 out of 43 seats in Jammu region and few seats in Kashmir and form a government with like-minded people and parties. Now the BJP is hopeful of winning a few more seats in Jammu region.
Likely split of votes in five key Jammu districts
A political analyst feels that the entry of Azad’s political party will lead to further fragmentation of Congress and secular votes in Chenab Valley and Pir Panjal region comprising five districts of Doda, Kishtwar and Ramban and border districts of Poonch and Rajouri. It will definitely tilt the equation in favour of BJP, especially in Jammu region, as the saffron party will be anatural beneficiary of split in secular votes