PATNA: By-elections to two seats in Bihar where polling is due on November 3, was billed as a test of strength of the ruling grand alliance in the state led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. But Nitish doesn’t appear interested, as RJD candidates are in the fray from both the seats and he fears the power of 81.
For, whenever RJD’s strength in the Assembly reaches 81, it will not need Nitish’s crutches to stay in power. It will reach the halfway mark of 122 with support from all the other parties in the ruling coalition. Look at the math: 81 (RJD) + 19 (Congress) + 16 (Left parties) + 4 (HAM) + 1 (AIMIM) + 1 (Independent) = 122. In other words, in just a few months, RJD leader and Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav could hypothetically claim chief ministership, cutting Nitish off like an unwanted appendage. That is reason enough to make Nitish upset, political analysts reckon.
If RJD manages to win both the seats where bypolls are due, Mokama and Gopalganj, its tally would touch 80. One seat held by the RJD has just fallen vacant after its member was disqualified following conviction in a fraud case. If the RJD manages to hold that seat in the subsequent bypoll, it would reach 81.
BJP has 77 and JD(U) 45 MLAs. Nitish cited an injury to stay off campaigning in Mokama and Gopalganj. But he actually may be wanting to avoid a bigger political injury to his career. The JD(U), too, is not showing great enthusiasm in campaigning for the RJD, though JD(U) president Rajiv Ranjan Singh a.k.a Lalan Singh has hit the campaign trail.
In Mokama, muscleman Anant Singh’s wife and RJD candidate Neelam Devi is pitted against BJP’s Sonam Devi, wife of another muscleman Lalan Singh. In Gopalganj, RJD’s Mohan Gupta is in the fray against BJP’s Kusum Devi. The bypoll was necessitated following the death of sitting MLA and Kusum’s husband Subhash Singh.