NEW DELHI: India's oil demand growth rate is projected to overtake China's by 2027, according to a report by the International Energy Agency.
The study also notes that the country is on track to experience an increase in oil demand of almost 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) until 2030, accounting for more than one-third of the projected 3.2 mb/d global gains.
“India is forecast to be the single largest source of global oil demand growth from 2023 to 2030, narrowly ahead of China. Underpinned by strong economic and demographic growth, the country is on track to post an increase in oil demand of almost 1.2 mb/d over the forecast period,” reads the report.
The report also mentions that India’s oil consumption will increase at a faster pace than that of other countries, in part because the country is still in the initial stages of economic development.
However, India’s oil production, which currently accounts for just 10% of its oil supply needs, is expected to continue declining further.
Therefore, the country will have to rely on imports to meet the growing demand. India’s crude production declined by around 4% per year between 2018 and 2023, a rate lower than the global average annual decline of 7%.
It decreased from its peak of just over 900 kb/d in 2011 to 700 kb/d in 2023.
According to the report, India’s refinery capacity will grow by 2023. The country, over the past decade, has become the world’s second-largest crude oil net importer (4.6 mb/d in 2023), after China (10.6 mb/d) and well ahead of the third, South Korea (2.8 mb/d).
India’s combined exports of finished and unfinished products have remained quite stable at around 1.2-1.3 mb/d since 2017.
Of the 1.25 mb/d of exports in 2023, the Jamnagar refining complex, which includes a merchant export refinery, accounted for 890 kb/d, Vadinar 130 kb/d, and the new Mangalore refinery 100 kb/d.
Middle distillates totaled 730 kb/d, of which diesel was 290 kb/d, gasoil 270 kb/d, and kerosene 175 kb/d. Gasoline and blendstocks averaged 320 kb/d (245 kb/d and 75 kb/d respectively), and naphtha accounted for another 123 kb/d.