The government is preparing for a prolonged and complex crisis as the war in West Asia intensifies, with senior officials indicating that New Delhi is planning for both immediate contingencies and a long-term strategic response.
Sections of the establishment feel the US-Israel conflict with Iran could widen in the coming weeks. One senior source said the scale of the unfolding situation may require “epic rescue” efforts by India, given its deep economic and human linkages with the Gulf.
“It seems,” the source said candidly, “this war will continue and spread.”
After President Donald Trump said on Monday that the US would continue attacking Iran as long as necessary, officials in New Delhi went on heightened alert.
One senior source involved in strategising outlined India’s core concerns, saying, “Our people in the Gulf, oil trade prospects and broader security interests are at stake.”
At the forefront is the safety of between 90 lakh and one crore Indian nationals living and working across Gulf countries and parts of the West Axsia affected by hostilities. Iranian drone and missile strikes have heightened anxiety among them.
Officials acknowledge that many Indian workers are living in fear. The government is in touch with host governments to ensure escalations don’t leave Indian nationals vulnerable.
The government has also faced criticism from opposition leaders over its diplomatic positioning, particularly its decision not to condole the reported killing of Iran’s Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Congress leader Sonia Gandhi has questioned the government’s “silence”.
A senior government source said, “We are careful about our choices. We are currently focused on the well-being of one crore Indians living in the Gulf countries, who are facing a crisis. We shall do everything possible to protect them.”
When asked whether this approach risks alienating Shia communities globally, including in India, the source was emphatic: “Don’t fail India by narrowing down India’s choices. We see the bigger issue. We have good relationships with the Gulf countries. Mutual respect and warmth with the governments in the Gulf region is there to see.
The Sunni rulers of the region have been treating our people with respect. They have invested billions of dollars over the years. Indians’ remittances have been over $100 billion. We’ve to take a call. These countries are under attack from Iranian drones and missiles. It’s a call we make in our people’s interest. It’s our decision, taking into account our long-term national interest.”
Officials also underline India’s longstanding security cooperation with Israel, recalling support during conflicts such as Kargil and Balakot. Strategically, Israel remains a significant partner in defence and intelligence cooperation.
“Every country in the world is looking after its own interests. India is doing so to ensure minimum damage. Every passing day, the risk is increasing,” the source said. Drawing a parallel with precedent, the official added: “In the past, the Congress government didn’t issue condolences for Col.
Gaddafi because it was looking ahead. We are taking a 360-degree view of the crisis. We have to depend on other governments for our people’s safety in the Gulf. Let domestic politics go on, but the Indian government will have to limit the damage of the war.”
On whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent visit to Israel influenced India’s stance, the source said, “India was unaware of the actual plans of the war. The PM went to Israel after nine years, and everything was planned accordingly. It was a historic bilateral visit.”
Sheela Bhatt
Delhi-based senior journalist