One must be singularly fortunate to get to witness history in the making. As the centuries-old epoch of Western domination is ending and drifting away, a new era is taking shape. Coping with such epochal change is never easy for any country. Unsurprisingly, against such a tumultuous backdrop, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar is back with his abacus to prophesy that India’s interests are best aligned with the ‘middle powers’, a presumptuous inchoate coinage at best of free-riders. Why should India have an identity crisis when it is wearing a custom-made mantle of Global South leadership?
In reality, incapable of dominating global affairs, India is migrating to a bloc that aspires to ‘punch above their weight’—who historically acted as system-maintainers (for example, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Sweden and the Netherlands) but have become ‘losers’ as Donald Trump has no time for them. Arguably, the new identity might give some gravitas to India’s ambitions but Trump is certainly not impressed.
Yet, the fond hope is that someday soon, they would find favour in Trump’s court. But until then, they keep deriding the new world order. Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney said in his Davos speech in February, “It seems that every day we’re reminded that we live in an era of great power rivalry, that the rules-based order is fading, that the strong can do what they can, and the weak must suffer what they must.” Jaishankar also says such things now and then.
But Trump took umbrage, calling Carney out in his own speech the next day at Davos, saying: “Canada lives because of the United States. Remember that, Mark, before you make your statements.” Trump has embarked on a foreign policy trajectory that may create a legacy for his presidency. The settlement of the Ukraine conflict is in the cards. The floodgates are opening: Trump’s peace push has put him on a collision course with Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s European backers (read: middle powers). Russia keeps them out of the peace process.
India is peeved, too, to be reduced to an outlier. Narendra Modi is deferring his annual summit with Vladimir Putin. But then, signs are appearing that across much of the American political establishment, from the most committed anti-Russian neo-conservatives to liberal Democrats, Ukraine and Western Europe are regarded as irritants rather than equal partners.
The logic of events suggests that Zelenskyy’s supporters in the US will gradually lose influence and that die-hards who wouldn’t settle for anything less than Russia’s defeat in Ukraine will get marginalised, no matter the outcome of the Congressional elections on November 3 and regardless of the next American president.
This march of history is an inexorable process and will gather momentum in the coming two-month period through the summits of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Shenzhen and the G20 in Florida, where Trump will meet Putin and Xi Jinping. Trump is pitching high for the Florida event as marking the consummation of a historic entente cordiale defining the 21st century.
For a start, the White House has stepped up its efforts on the Ukrainian front, attempting to revive the negotiation process. After the large-scale diesel deal with Russia, Western media outlets have been reporting on a new US peace plan. Washington proposed back in September to its European partners and Kyiv to resume Russian gas transit to Europe via Ukraine and to transfer Russia’s frozen funds to a new platform under American oversight. On October 12, the Washington Post reported on the details of US-European discussions surrounding this plan. The initiative reportedly includes four main pillars, including an energy agreement between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. Other key principles include investments in Ukraine's post-war reconstruction, a freeze on the conflict and security guarantees for Kyiv.
The string of defeats suffered by the Ukrainian forces in the most recent months becomes a powerful tool for the White House to pressure Kyiv. Changes on the battlefield only confirm the US administration's position: Ukraine has no strong cards left. The military defeats increase criticism of Zelenskyy from the Ukrainian opposition and supporters within Ukraine of peace with Russia. It's possible he could be pressured to hold presidential elections.
The capacity of Europe’s middle powers to shore up Zelenskyy is visibly waning. Following last week’s European summit, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated bluntly that the European Union has not made any concrete decisions on supporting Kyiv. Berlin openly admitted that Germany has completely exhausted its domestic reserves for supplying Ukraine with new air defence systems.
Meanwhile, the simmering political discontent that finally erupted in France as student protests against President Emmanuel Macron are cascading and the deeply unpopular leader has lost control, as nation-wide protests spread to neighbouring European countries. Inspired by French resistance to repression, people demonstrated in Brussels against rising university tuition fees. Tens of thousands of Portuguese, unhappy with the rising housing prices, took to the streets of Lisbon. Similar marches, which escalated into clashes with police, also took place in Italy. Clashes between students and police were also reported in Albania.
Clearly, the neo-conservative Russophobic leaderships of the middle powers in Europe who exclusively defended Ukrainian interests at the expense of their own citizens, whose taxes after all finance their military-industrial complex, have lost the confidence of the people. Merz’s public support stands at 10 percent; Macron’s at 15 percent. Voters are opting for parties willing to restore relations with Moscow as business allies to revive their economy in deep crisis. Europe needs serious political change and the urgency of repairing Europe’s tattered ties with Russia is beginning to be felt.
Unlike Joe Biden, Trump allows the groundswell to elect new leaderships including in the EU. Elections will be held in four of the five largest EU countries next year—Spain, France, Poland and Italy. Their results could well alter the course of the entire EU, rendering the very idea of ‘middle powers’, as Jaishankar visualises it, obsolete.
Trump’s advice to Carney is spot on: the middle powers of Europe live because of the United States and are condemned to be outliers otherwise.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)