BENGALURU: Results of the bypolls to Davanagere South and Bagalkot Assembly constituencies that will be out on Monday will likely throw a surprise for both the Congress and BJP even as their leaders have kept the fingers crossed hoping to win.
The bypolls were not a cakewalk for Congress as anti-incumbency and aversion of a section of Muslim voters in Davanagere South where their member was denied a ticket may upset chances of its candidate Samarth Shamanur.
Congress may have lost a certain percentage of votes it had garnered in the 2023 polls to the Social Democratic Party of India and independents from Muslim community. “Of the 55,000 Muslim votes, we may have lost around 20,000.
Still, we will win by a narrow margin as 35,000 Veerashaiva-Lingayats have by and large voted for Congress,” claimed a party leader. In 2023, Shamanur Shivashankarappa, whose passing away necessitated the bypoll, had won by 27,888 votes against Ajay Kumar BG, also a Lingayat.
Samarth, grandson of Shamanur Shivashankarappa and son of Minister SS Mallikarjun and Davanagere Prabha Mallikarjun, is the lone Veerashaiva-Lingayat candidate, against whom BJP has fielded an ST Nayaka, Srinivas Daskariyappa. What has concerned Congress is the low voting percentage in some polling stations where the Muslim population is sizable.
After the polling, Congress had initiated disciplinary action against two MLCs for their alleged anti-party activities that had upset the Muslim community.
In Bagalkot, where CM Siddaramaiah campaigned extensively, the polarisation of Hindu votes in urban areas may favour BJP candidate Veeranna Charantimath. In 2023, he lost to HY Meti of Congress by a narrow margin of 5,878 votes. But then, his younger brother Mallikarjun Charantimath had played a spoilsport by garnering 10,116 votes as an independent.
This time, he has not contested. “Some 5,000 SC Left, Madiga community votes have shifted to BJP as the community was upset that Siddaramaiah had delayed the decision on implementing internal quota for Scheduled Castes,” said a Congress leader. This could affect the chances of Congress’ Umesh Meti, son of late HY Meti, analysts said.
If Congress loses even one seat, it could trigger internal bickering again with the CM and DCM DK Shivakumar camps interpreting the results to their advantage by blaming each other, analysts said.
The victory even in one seat could be a big boost for BJP ahead of the May 9 rally, the party is organising in Chitradurga to felicitate former CM and Veerashaiva-Lingayat strongman BS Yediyurappa, marking his 50 years of his political career.