BENGALURU: With campaigning for the October 23 elections to four Karnataka Legislative Council seats drawing to a close, the contest is set to test the BJP-JDS alliance’s ability to transfer votes and the Congress’ capacity to mount a coordinated challenge amid its internal political tensions.
The NDA, which currently holds three of the four seats, is aiming to retain its existing strength and wrest the Bengaluru Teachers’ constituency from the Congress. The Ruling party, meanwhile, is hoping that its early announcement of candidates and sustained groundwork will help it defend its lone seat and make gains in the other constituencies. Political analysts, however, caution against reading too much into the outcome as a verdict on the State Government or the alliance.
They argue that elections to graduates’ and teachers’ constituencies are shaped significantly by candidates’ individual influence, their organisational networks and, crucially, their efforts to register eligible voters months before polling.
Political analyst Prof Sandeep Shastri has said that these elections should not be viewed as a referendum on the government, political parties or the NDA. Instead, he believes the results will largely reflect which candidates have been most successful in mobilising prospective voters.
The four constituencies going to the polls are South-East Graduates’, West Graduates’, North-East Teachers’ and Bengaluru Teachers’. The BJP has fielded candidates in the first three, while its ally JDS is contesting the Bengaluru Teachers’ seat.
In the South-East Graduates’ constituency, BJP candidate KM Suresh faces Congress nominee Shashi Hulikuntemutt. The presence of Chikkaraju, who belongs to the Kadugolla community, adds another dimension to the contest, with the extent of support he attracts likely to be closely watched.
The West Graduates’ constituency will see sitting BJP MLC SV Sankanur attempt a hat-trick against Congress candidate Mohan Limbikai, who has an ABVP background.
Four candidates withdrew from the contest, leaving 14 in the fray. The outcome will depend on how effectively the candidates consolidate their support among registered graduates.
In the North-East Teachers’ constituency, BJP’s Shashil G Namoshi is pitted against Congress candidate Sharanappa Mathur. The contest will test the candidates’ ability to mobilise teachers and address their professional concerns.
The Bengaluru Teachers’ constituency could prove particularly significant for the NDA. JDS candidate AP Ranganath is challenging sitting Congress MLC Puttanna, with both belonging to the Vokkaliga community. The contest will be an important test of whether BJP voters can be persuaded to back a JD(S) candidate, just as JD(S) supporters are expected to support BJP nominees in the other three constituencies.
The alliance has expressed confidence that its supporters will vote cohesively. However, translating an agreement between the two parties’ leaderships into actual vote transfer at the constituency level remains a key challenge.
For the Congress, the campaign has unfolded against the backdrop of the controversy surrounding the alleged sting operation and reported tensions within the party leadership. Although the party announced its candidates well ahead of the polls, the campaign has not consistently projected a united front.
Chief Minister DK Shivakumar and KPCC president BK Hariprasad have campaigned in the West Graduates’ constituency, while several ministers and senior leaders have canvassed for Congress candidates elsewhere. Deputy Chief Minister Dr G Parameshwara also led a meeting in Tumakuru to mobilise support for Hulikuntemutt. The extent to which these efforts translate into votes will be closely watched.
The BJP, meanwhile, has deployed senior leaders, including state president B Y Vijayendra and Union Minister of State for Railways V Somanna, to campaign for its candidates.
The results, therefore, will offer competing political narratives. The NDA could claim that retaining its seats or winning all four demonstrates effective alliance coordination, while Congress could point to any gains as evidence of its ability to mobilise support despite internal challenges. Neither interpretation, however, would necessarily translate into a broader verdict on the political climate ahead of the 2028 Assembly elections.