Elections to the local bodies have proved again that the electorate has its own way of looking at the political reality. Despite that, the victor and the vanquished always interpret election results in ways that suit their convenience. To the victor, it’s a mandate not only for the present but also for the future. To the vanquished, the victor’s victory is not real, but a mere concocted version of political reality. Both of them, however, agree that they have nothing to learn from the verdict. Transposing this to the current situation, an important question arises: What meaning the does the verdict hold for the future?
No doubt, the Left is the winner here. By the same logic, UDF is the loser and NDA the ‘in-between’. Obviously, LDF’s gain is UDF’s loss. As for the NDA, it can feel satisfied as it improved its position and spoiled the chances of the UDF and LDF, in that order. For the LDF, the victory offers great relief as it came against the background of a slew of corruption charges, scathing media criticisms and more than four years of remaining in power. This is a prize it has won for its systematic campaign, inter-party coherence and the development agenda it has pursued.
At the same time, this is also a byproduct of three other factors: broadening the social base of the LDF with the induction of LJD and KC(M) to its fold, and a consequent depletion of the UDF’s popular base; organisational weakness and leadership deficit of the UDF; and NDA’s spoiler effect. This means it has little cause to be overenthusiastic. Further, at the time of the assembly elections, popular gaze will turn not only towards the government’s performance but also towards the scandals it is facing.
This means the assembly elections remain open ended. It could go the LDF or the UDF way. For the second proposition to happen, the UDF has to keep its house in order and address its organisational weaknesses and the leadership issues. Needless to say, the Congress has little organisational presence at the grassroot level.As for the BJP, enhancing its electoral presence depends on its willingness to rewrite its political narrative and make it inclusive and suitable to the socio-political legacy of Kerala.
Dr J Prabhash
The writer is a political analyst and former pro-vice-chancellor of Kerala University