THIRUVANTHAPURAM: A pre-2026 Assembly election survey conducted by Vote Vibe, a private research organisation, has highlighted significant anti-incumbency sentiment against Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF).
According to the survey, 47.9 per cent of respondents expressed strong anti-incumbency feelings towards the Chief Minister. The sentiment increased with age, rising from 37 per cent among those aged 18 to 24 to 45 per cent among those above 55.
The survey also found that 62 per cent of participants were inclined to vote out their current MLAs, while only 23 per cent supported retaining their sitting representatives. Surveyors described this as a clear indication of widespread dissatisfaction with the current leadership.
In terms of political trust, the United Democratic Front (UDF) led the field, with 38.9 per cent of respondents backing its development agenda. The LDF followed with 27.8 per cent, while the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) registered 23.1 per cent.
Leadership preferences revealed notable shifts within both major alliances. Within the UDF, Shashi Tharoor emerged as the leading Chief Ministerial candidate with 28.3 per cent support, followed by Opposition Leader V.D. Satheesan at 15.4 per cent.
On the LDF side, former Health Minister K.K. Shailaja topped the list with 24.2 per cent support, while incumbent CM Pinarayi Vijayan trailed with 17.5 per cent. The survey did not suggest any major leadership vacuum within the NDA.
Kerala-based political analyst J. Prabhash urged caution in interpreting the results. “Without understanding the methodology of the survey, one cannot assess its veracity. In my opinion, anyone can say there is anti-incumbency even without conducting a survey,” he said.
Amitabh Tiwari, political analyst and Founding Partner of Vote Vibe, stated the survey was conducted over the past fortnight and included over 10,000 respondents chosen via random phone calls. Participants were drawn from all districts and religious communities across the state.
When asked by TNIE about Tharoor’s lead as the Congress's CM face, Tiwari said, “Tharoor’s recent media presence may have influenced public perception.” On KK Shailaja's popularity within the LDF, he added that while the survey did not delve into the reasons behind her support, she is likely seen by many as a natural successor to Vijayan.