THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Talk about contradictions. Despite triggering intense spells of rain that led to floods, landslides, deaths and widespread destruction in Kerala, this year’s southwest monsoon in the state is still 22% below normal.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), though recent extreme rainfall events helped reduce the deficit accumulated during the first half of the monsoon, they do not indicate a revival of overall monsoon pattern. Weather experts said the state is still facing rain shortage caused by a weak June-July monsoon phase.
Officials said the rainfall received during the recent 10-day period has largely improved the statistics. However, the number of rainy days remained significantly lower during June and July, and a few intense spells compensating the deficit cannot erase the prolonged dry phase, they said.
“The combined June-July deficit by the end of July was around 34%. The heavy rainfall episode reduced the deficit but did not bring Kerala back into the normal rainfall category,” IMD director Neetha K Gopal told TNIE.
She said though the three days of heavy rain was a “short-lived extreme rainfall event”, its contribution to improving water levels was limited. The IMD had forecast a below-normal southwest monsoon for 2026, with developing El Nino conditions among the major factors influencing the outlook.
“We are not expecting a major revival of monsoon activity in the immediate future. Rest of August and September are likely to stay below normal in terms of long-range forecasts,” she said. Due to low pressure system, the IMD has forecast a slight increase in rainfall activity around August 13-14.
Meanwhile, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) has predicted an above-normal northeast monsoon over Kerala.
The IMD said El Nino is expected to strengthen around September-November. “During El Nino years, Kerala generally tends to receive better northeast monsoon rainfall,” said meteorologist Rajeevan Erikkulam.