THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Uncertainty over the official onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala continues with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirming that the conditions required for formally declaring the onset have not yet been fully satisfied.
The IMD had earlier indicated May 26 as the likely onset date for the southwest monsoon over Kerala with a margin of error of four days. Meanwhile, the threat of El Nino looms large with many weather models indicating that the system could develop earlier than previously anticipated.
As per assessments earlier, the El Nino impact would mainly be felt during the second half of the monsoon season. However, newer projections suggest it could begin influencing the monsoon during the May- June -July period itself. MET director Neetha K Gopal told TNIE that the current monsoon flow has weakened due to a cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea, which is diverting the monsoon winds and reducing rainfall activity across the state.
“The rainfall and wind criteria required for monsoon onset are not being satisfied now. A cyclonic circulation over the Arabian Sea is diverting the monsoon winds, leading to a reduction in rainfall over Kerala. The evolving weather situation is still being monitored and it is difficult to say when exactly the onset will happen,” the official added.
Besides the uncertainty over onset, meteorologists are also tracking the development of El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which may influence rainfall patterns during the monsoon season.