THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The much-awaited onset of the southwest monsoon remains uncertain, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday forecasting that the season is likely to reach Kerala within a week, even as many weather models predicted a June 2-4 arrival window. Previously, the IMD had predicted an early, May 26 monsoon arrival.
Meanwhile, the El Nino threat looms large, with the IMD indicating possible development of a weak phenomenon in June, which could influence rainfall patterns throughout the monsoon season.
IMD director Neetha K Gopal said a cyclonic circulation over Lakshadweep was currently affecting the strengthening of westerly winds essential for monsoon onset. However, it did not mean the monsoon was delayed, she said.
“We cannot say yet it’s a delayed monsoon. It is still expected within the normal window. Monsoon would be considered delayed only if onset happens after June 8,” Neetha told TNIE.
Normal-range rainfall likely over next fortnight
Southern and central parts of Kerala are currently witnessing monsoon-like weather conditions, due to “low-level westerly winds”, Neetha said.
“These are precursor conditions associated with the advancing edge of the monsoon. We are expecting stronger westerly currents over the coast once the cyclonic system moves,” said the IMD director. The department expects normal-range rainfall during the next two weeks. As per the seasonal outlook, IMD expects Kerala to receive below-normal rainfall during June and the overall southwest monsoon season.
“In El Nino years, there will not be steady continuous rain, it will be mostly wet spells followed by dry spells. High intensity thunder showers may also occur intermittently,” Neetha said.
Yellow alerts
Sunday: Pathanamthitta, Alappuzha, Kottayam, Ernakulam & Malappuram
Monday: Kottayam, Idukki, Ernakulam, Malappuram & Wayanad
Tuesday: Thiruvananthapuram, Kollam, Alappuzha & Ernakulam