KOCHI: The arrival of the northeast monsoon has kindled hopes of a decline in temperature in the state. The daytime temperature had crossed 35 degrees Celsius on Tuesday, with departure ranging between 3 degrees and 5 degrees in many districts.
There was, however, a decrease in temperature in southern districts on Wednesday as the sky remained cloudy. Surprisingly, the night temperature remained around 2 to 3 degrees above normal in the past week, leaving families with sleepless nights. The hot climate also reflected in power consumption as peak-hour consumption crossed 5,000 million units.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD) Thiruvananthapuram director Neetha K Gopal, the weather forecast had indicated a 3 to 4 degrees departure in daytime temperature because of deficient rainfall. “We are expecting a decline in temperature from Thursday as the northeast monsoon sets in.
The impact of El Nino could be one of the reasons for the rise in temperature. As the sea-surface temperature rises, it will affect the atmosphere too. The temperature may decline in December, but it will be moderate due to the impact of El Nino. It is too early to comment on summer but it could be harsh if El Nino intensifies,” Neetha said.
Meanwhile, former National Institute of Oceanography director S Prasannakumar said the Pacific is developing an exceptionally strong El Niño and it is reasonable to describe it as a potential “Super El Niño”.
“The El Niño signal has already started influencing the Walker circulation, so its atmospheric impact has reached the Indian Ocean. The main question now is when this influence will become strongest over the tropical Indian Ocean, the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. As Pacific warming approaches its forecast peak, altered trade winds and convection may increasingly affect equatorial Indian Ocean winds, cloud cover and air–sea heat exchange,” Prasannakumar said.
The latest NOAA (the US’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) assessment indicates that strong-to-very-strong El Niño conditions are likely to persist through January–March 2027, he said.
“The developing El Niño could affect India’s 2027 southwest monsoon, and the risk of below-normal rainfall deserves attention. El Niño creates a genuine risk of a weaker 2027 southwest monsoon. However, it is too early to say whether the 2027 monsoon will be deficient or how severe it might be,” Prasannakumar said.