HYDERABAD: If Telangana would not have imposed a total lockdown and enforced social distancing amid the novel Coronavirus pandemic, around 36 per cent of its population could have been infected by the highly contagious disease, a study revealed. It also highlighted that adherence to hand and face hygiene would reduce the transmission of COVID-19 by at least 99.7 per cent.
The study was based on Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model of understanding the spread of an infectious disease. It was conducted by researchers from SHARE India-Mediciti Institute of Medical Sciences, which is currently available in a pre-print version.
The researchers took into consideration the number of COVID-19 cases reported in Telangana between March 2 and April 4, for which the R0 — the measure of how many new persons can be infected by one infected person — was calculated as 1.38.
According to the projections, there was a need to lessen the R0 value further with stricter implementation of the lockdown because if this rate of virus transmission continued, the State might end up having around 37,157 cases and 1,486 deaths.
Interpreting numbers with caution
These numbers, the researchers said, should be interpreted with caution because many unique characteristics of the disease spread were not considered and not clear. They simply give an idea of what the worst-case scenario could be and an idea of how and when the curve might flatten.
Dr Rashmi Pant, the corresponding author of the paper and a bio-statistician, said: "We had data of only the initial days of the epidemic. So, we used the SIR model for our projections. Further study is being conducted to include new numbers of Covid-19 in Telangana along with other data, such as numbers of samples collected and tests conducted."
Dr Jammy Guru Rajesh, an epidemiologist and co-author of the paper, said, "Researchers are exploring more advanced and complex models as new data is emerging. This includes parameters that represent the strategies being used by the government for better projections, which will give a better picture of the disease spread."