Global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to decline 0.9% against the previous projection of 1.2% growth, IDC said in its latest report. The downward revision in forecast is mainly due to component shortages and changes in product launch schedules.
IDC reports that Apple’s decision to shift the launch of its next base iPhone model from late 2026 to early 2027 will reduce iPhone shipments by 4.2% next year. In addition, a continuing global memory shortage is expected to limit supply and increase component prices. This will affect low- and mid-range Android smartphones the most, as they are more sensitive to rising costs.
Because of these issues, total smartphone shipments are expected to see a small decline in 2026. However, the average selling price of smartphones is projected to rise to $465, pushing the market’s overall value to a record $578.9 billion.
“As memory components become more limited and more expensive, manufacturers face increasing pressure to raise prices,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. “Some brands will have no choice but to increase prices, while others will shift their product mix toward higher-priced models to absorb the impact. Next year will be challenging for the industry, but IDC still expects record ASPs.”
Meanwhile, Apple is on track for a record year in 2025, with shipments expected to exceed 247 million units, according to IDC. The report credits this strong performance to the exceptional success of the iPhone 17 series.