It was in Bihar that Lalu Prasad Yadav had stopped L K Advani’s Rath Yatra in 1990. This time it would seem he has stopped a bigger chariot, the Modi-Shah juggernaut.
In the overwhelming victory of the Nitish-Lalu-Congress Grand Alliance, the real story of the moment in Bihar is the return of the original Mandal satrap, Lalu Yadav. But it is to be seen whether his superior numbers will see him back to his old ways or if everyone will be treated to a reinvented Lalu. There’s good reason to presume the latter. In those numbers totted up by the Grand Alliance — which signal more than a mere aggregate of Lalu and Nitish Kumar’s support base — the non-BJP pole of Indian politics is seeing something of a larger story with potential beyond Bihar. Lalu, if indeed he has been chastened by all the infamy he gathered for his ‘jungle raj’ days, may see political wisdom in bringing a quantum of refinement to his approach and back Nitish Kumar’s good governance model without creating too many encumbrances or giving free rein to dons and bahubalis.
In a throwaway line at his joint press conference with Nitish, he signalled at what may be the real nature of the result. Not just a revival of the Muslim-Yadav bloc, but votes from Extremely Backward Class (EBC) communities, Mahadalits and even upper-castes would have been required to bring about this kind of a landslide. This speaks of a new sort of consolidation that goes beyond caste. It is almost as if an invocation had been made to a Bihari identity — a kind of sub-national pride.
Getting a consensus of this sort is significant, and can have a replicability outside Bihar. Support from the upper castes, who happen to be still quite influential in opinion-making domains across India, would be the key variable that can make or mar the chances of a non-BJP coalition. The proffered picture of Nitish Kumar in Hastinapur by 2019 hinges on a measure of this elite caste support too, while such a coalition works on solidarities among the backward communities.
All is not lost for the BJP though. Assam is not Bihar. And the potential for growth remains in Bengal and other ‘virgin’ territories like Kerala (as demonstrated by local election results there on Saturday). Prime Minister Narendra Modi can use this setback creatively after the dust settles. If he reacts along predicted lines, he is likely to go for a retrieval of image through a series of steps.
A Union Cabinet reshuffle is in the offing; the Prime Minister can use that occasion to send a message of recalibrated politics, besides getting rid of trouble-prone, underperforming, motor-mouth ministers. The continuance of Ram Vilas Paswan and Upendra Khushwaha is also in doubt, their utility now being over. In some readings, this may not happen immediately as any knee-jerk overhaul would be tantamount to an admission of having gone wrong in some ways, and also create an unsettled air just before the crucial winter and budget sessions.
A rebooting of the Modi brand is sure to see a renewed forcus on the economy and key infrastructure sectors like power. He would also need a less antagonistic approach towards the opposition if he wants to give his bouquet of reform legislations a greater chance of getting through Parliament, especially the Rajya Sabha where a blockade had been on even earlier.
Now, the Bihar results may give the Congress grounds to legitimise its filibustering politics. Remember that the first cohesive dissent against the Modi government happened over the Land Acquisition Ordinance. Even fence-sitting parties in Parliament may see good reason to shed their anti-Congressism and take up anti-BJPism as their defining default mode. Modi would need a more persuasive style to forestall this kind of realignment of forces.
Paradoxically, Nitish Kumar, a more mature politician than someone like Arvind Kejriwal, may help him in this because he needs a cooperative Centre to run his state effectively.
Then comes the question of fixing responsibility for defeat, and the central figure of interest here is naturally Amit Shah. The common prediction that he could face the axe may not be borne out by events, despite the voices of dissent in the BJP likely to get emboldened. The critical factor here will be how the RSS and the triangular relationship between the party, government and the mentor-body plays out. The faultline that some observers sense between certain sections of the Sangh and the Modi-Shah team may become filled up, resulting in greater coordination, if say Lalu takes his secular politics to a higher decibel level outside Bihar now.
Even if Shah stays, he will now have to remodel his electoral management style and go into Assam and Uttar Pradesh with greater attention to the local political figures, people who have brought up the party over years, rather than paratroopers or opportunists. For, at least one minor event that went completely unlamented on the day of reckoning in Bihar was the political eclipse of the other Modi — Sushilkumar.