NEW DELHI: Global average temperatures are expected to remain at or near record levels over the next five years, with Arctic temperature anomalies likely to continue exceeding the global mean, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), compiled by the UK’s Met Office.
The Global Annual-to-Decadal Update analyses climate observations from the past five years and provides regional forecasts for temperatures and precipitation for the coming five years.
The predicted annual global mean near-surface temperatures from 2026 to 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
There is an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record.
The report also states there is a 91 per cent likelihood that the global mean near-surface temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average for at least one year during this period. This threshold was briefly crossed in 2024, when the global average surface temperature reached around 1.55°C above the pre-industrial baseline.
Additionally, there is a 75 per cent chance that the five-year mean temperature from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. However, it remains highly unlikely, with less than a 1 per cent chance, that any single year in the next five years will exceed 2°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The five-year average temperature prediction for the central tropical Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) indicates a trend towards El Niño conditions, particularly in 2027 and 2028.
Dr Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, said, “An El Niño is predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood of 2027 being the next record-breaking year.”
The update has been produced by the UK’s Met Office in its role as the WMO Lead Centre for Annual to Decadal Climate Prediction. It combines predictions contributed by 13 institutes, including four Global Producing Centres, Barcelona Supercomputer Centre, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the Met Office.
The report noted that confidence in forecasts for annually averaged global mean near-surface temperatures remains high, as hindcasts have demonstrated a very high level of accuracy.