It will remain one of the great paradoxes of contemporary politics that US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu unknowingly facilitated an orderly transition of power in Iran from the epochal era of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a matter of intense speculation for at least the past decade.
Transfer of power in Shia politics is always a hairy adventure. What is often not understood by outsiders is that while sectarianism reflects real religious differences and defines ‘otherness’, it is not the main cause of divisions in the Middle East but its inter-relations with power, resources and territory.
Succession in Iran had indeed become overdue. Khamenei, an astute politician, would have instinctively sensed that he had lost the support of the Tehran bazaar, or the trader class, which was the financial backbone of the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The axis between the clerics (as distinct from the ecclesiastical hierarchy) and the bazaar has been historically at the core of Shia politics—somewhat like the Brahmin-Baniya communion in Indian politics.
Be that as it may, in sheer naïveté, Trump and Netanyahu expected that the 88-member Assembly of Experts would have a herculean task to arrive at a consensus on Khamenei’s successor. Trump even demanded, bombastically, a say for himself in the proceedings. Nonetheless, his sarcastic message was counterintuitive and guaranteed two things. One, that the Assembly of Experts avoid the kind of skulduggery that played out in 1989 when the then kingmaker and President Hashemi Rafsanjani unknowingly helped Khamenei to assume the mantle of Supreme Leader despite the latter lacking Imam Ruhollah Khomeini’s dark charisma and religious standing. Two, the choice of the successor must be made expeditiously.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, the second-oldest son of Khamenei, must be properly understood as Iran navigates an extremely complicated and dangerous period ahead. Succinctly put, Mojtaba represents continuity, while deeper down, the message is one of defiance.
Mojtaba never held elected office but had a ringside view—even participation—of high politics for decades as his father’s trusted aide. What matters crucially and decisively in the present tumultuous backdrop of realpolitik is Mojtaba’s close relationship with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, where he also served once as a young man. In sum, Mojtaba has literally landed while running. A WikiLeaks disclosure in the late 2000s cited US diplomatic cables describing Mojtaba as ‘the power behind the robes’, who was widely regarded as a ‘capable and forceful’ figure within the regime.
What lies ahead? The latest negotiations between the US and Iran in Geneva confirmed that Tehran is genuinely seeking peace and a settlement with the US in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. It is crystal clear from the disclosures by Omani foreign minister Sayyid Badr Al Busaidi, who mediated at Geneva, that a framework agreement was within reach when Trump broke loose under pressure from Netanyahu to have one more desperate fling at regime change.
However, much as Trump practises deception in the art of the deal, he has also signalled, in lengthy remarks on Monday, that he would be “willing to talk with Iran, but that depends on the terms”. Trump said the war was going to “end soon". As he put it, “We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some people. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term excursion. I think the war is very complete, pretty much… We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. We go forward more determined than ever to achieve ultimate victory.”
The massive destruction of the American bases in the region with his “armada” as mute witness and Tehran’s capability to destroy Israel if push comes to shove are sobering thoughts. At any rate, Trump telephoned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday. Presidential aide Yury Ushakov later said Putin “set out a number of considerations aimed at achieving a prompt political and diplomatic settlement of the Iranian conflict”.
Ushakov added, “I would note that a very substantive—and, I believe, useful—exchange of views took place on this matter. Overall… the conversation was highly substantive and will undoubtedly have practical significance”.
Putin followed up with a call on Tuesday to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, where he ‘reaffirmed his principled stance in favour of de-escalating the conflict as soon as possible and resolving it via political means’.
Putin was the first world leader to congratulate Mojtaba on Monday. Putin stated in his congratulatory message, “At a time when Iran is facing armed aggression, your work in this high office will undoubtedly require great courage and dedication. I am confident that you will honourably continue your father's cause and unite the Iranian people in the face of severe trials.
“For our part, we would like to reaffirm our unwavering support for Tehran and solidarity with our Iranian friends. Russia has been and will remain a reliable partner of Iran.”
Achieving ‘ultimate victory’ over Iran remains a pipe dream. Russian experts believe that a full-scale US invasion would require deployment to the tune of half a million ground troops. Trump’s conversation with Putin could potentially help reduce tensions, and with public support in America for the war barely touching the one-third mark, it shouldn’t be too difficult for Trump to return the situation to a ‘neutral’ level for a ceasefire, although the US suffered significant economic costs without achieving the stated objectives of the operation.
Indeed, domestic factors play a significant role in Trump’s calculus, as his approval ratings have recently stagnated amid unresolved economic issues, primarily related to rising food prices. On Monday, oil prices shot up to $120 per barrel, compelling Washington to consider easing oil sanctions on Russia. Trump must be sensing that Operation Epic Fury is gradually spiralling out of control and needs to be reined in.
Moscow has not denied the reports that Russia has been transferring vital intelligence data to Tehran, causing massive destruction to American bases. Optics matter in diplomacy. Russia remains one of the few international players capable of facilitating the re-launch of the negotiation process, which increasingly seems in the cards, with Iran having pushed back the US-Israeli agenda of regime change.
M K Bhadrakumar | Former diplomat
(Views are personal)