CHENNAI: In a multi-cornered contest for the May 13 Lok Sabha election for the Kanyakumari constituency, the BJP feels that the scattering of votes for other candidates will enable its nominee Pon Radhakrishnan emerge victor.
Though it may be too early to hazard a guess on how the three Christian candidates will split the votes in the district, where the minorities form about 50 per cent of the population, the BJP, realising that it has won the pole position, has embarked on an early campaign to consolidate its vote bank.
For Radhakrishnan, who won the seat with a thumping majority in 1999 when two Christian candidates from the Congress and TMC were fielded against him, 2009 will be an encore, feels BJP district president, S Veal Pandian. The fear among the Christians that Radhakrishnan could work against their interest was dispelled as he proved his 'secular' credentials when he was the MP, says Pandian.
In fact, many Christians, to whom The New Indian Express spoke too, are not averse to the idea of voting for Radhakrishnan though the district has seen a deep communal divide since the Mandakadu clases in 1982. The predominent CSI Christian Nadar community that has traditionally shown a liking for Congress candidates hailing from their same community is also a wee bit confused on chosing the right candidate now.
If they have to go by party affiliation, the constituency has gone to the DMK, which has fielded J Helen Davidson, a Roman Catholic Nadar. If they have go by community, the only CSI Christian Nadar is S Austin of the DMDK.
The sitting MP A V Bellarmin, also a Roman Catholic, despite belonging to the CPM, might not get the support that he got in 2004 for the district, known for its high literacy rate, has a sizeable population of government employees and teachers, who have not yet forgotten the draconian TESMA brought in during the AIADMK regime, to crackdown on strikes by government staff.
Helen Davidson, who should be on the forefront in view of the DMK's alliance with the Congress, might lose out not just a good chunk of CSI Nadar votes but also Congress votes.
For the district Congress workers, who tried desperately to get the constituency for Congress feel that if the DMK wins this time, the constituency will lose its traditional image as a 'Congress bastion'. There is even an attempt by some Congress workers to defeat the DMK.
Though Bellarim will garner the votes of the CPM, MDMK and AIADMK, they will not add up to a winnable number and Austin, who had been an MLA from Nagercoil and a Rajya Sabha member, has a personal appeal, besides the backing of Vijayakanth supporters. Away from this crowd is Sivagami, the former IAS officer belonging to the BSP, who is hoping to gather the Dalit votes.
So unless the dominant Christian community decides collectively to prevent the BJP from getting a seat from Tamil Nadu, Radhakrishnan might be the winner.