NEW DELHI: India’s energy demand is expected to rise to 44 million barrels of oil equivalent by 2050, from the current level of around 22 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, according to Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department, Research Division, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). He said India is projected to be the most stable and largest contributor to global energy demand growth during this period.
Benyoucef noted that global energy demand is expected to increase by 23% over the forecast period, with non-OECD countries accounting for 72% of total global energy demand by 2050. Oil is expected to retain a significant share in the global energy mix throughout the forecast period, contributing around 30% of global primary energy demand.
He also mentioned that global electricity demand is projected to be a major driver of energy consumption growth, increasing from around 32,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2024 to nearly 58,000 TWh by 2050. Demand growth will be led by the residential and commercial sectors, followed by industry and transport, as well as emerging drivers such as decentralisation and artificial intelligence.
Strong energy demand growth is projected across all regions, with nearly 75% of the increase expected to come from developing and emerging economies. The OECD region is also expected to witness notable growth, although at a slower pace.
At the global level, total oil demand is projected to reach around 113 million barrels per day by 2030 and rise further to 123 million barrels per day by 2050. However, oil demand in the OECD region is expected to decline by 8.5 million barrels per day over the forecast period. The largest increase in demand is expected to come from India, followed by Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa.
Focusing on India, Benyoucef said total road transport demand is expected to increase by 8.2 million barrels per day over the forecast horizon. While demand across road transport continues to rise, growth is expected to be spread across multiple sectors.
On the refining front, the majority of incremental refining capacity additions are expected to occur in the Asia-Pacific region, including India. India is likely to be the single-largest contributor to refining capacity growth, followed by other major economies such as Indonesia. Africa is projected to add around 3.2 million barrels per day of refining capacity in the long term, primarily to meet domestic demand.