The government is set for a windfall from the Reserve Bank of India through the surplus transfer to be announced on Friday, when the central bank’s board meets to finalise its FY26 accounts. Analysts tracking Mint Road expect a bumper payout in the range of Rs2.8-3.4 lakh crore, higher than the Rs2.7 lakh crore transferred in FY25. The transfer is expected to provide significant fiscal support to the government amid rising economic uncertainties.
The dividend payout is determined under the revised Economic Capital Framework (ECF), which prescribes a capital buffer in the range of 4.5-7.5% of the central bank’s balance sheet. Following a prolonged tussle between the government and the RBI over surplus transfers, the Centre in 2018 appointed a committee headed by former RBI Governor Bimal Jalan to frame a mechanism for such payouts. The committee’s recommendations led to the implementation of the ECF in 2019, when the RBI transferred Rs68,000 crore to the government, up from Rs44,900 crore in the previous year.
The ECF serves as the RBI’s risk management framework, determining the level of capital and reserves required to maintain financial stability and the amount of surplus that can be transferred to the government. The Jalan committee had initially recommended a contingency risk buffer of 4.5-6.5%, which was later expanded to 7.5% in FY25.
Sakshi Gupta, Principal Economist at HDFC Bank, said the RBI is likely to transfer a record Rs2.85 lakh crore this year. The FY27 Budget has estimated Rs3.16 lakh crore in dividends from government-owned entities, primarily from the RBI and public sector banks. Collectively, state-run banks reported a record net profit of around Rs2 lakh crore in FY26.
While analysts at Barclays expect the payout to be around Rs3 lakh crore, analysts at Emkay Global Financial Services estimate a range of Rs2.8-3.4 lakh crore if the RBI board decides to lower the ECF buffer to 6.5% from 7.5% in the previous fiscal year.
In FY25, the RBI transferred Rs2.7 lakh crore to the government, 27% higher than the previous year. Since the implementation of the Jalan committee framework, surplus transfers have steadily risen from Rs68,000 crore in FY19 to Rs2.68 lakh crore in FY25. In FY13, the transfer stood at just Rs13,000 crore, according to Emkay Global.
“Our RBI dividend estimate is close to Rs2.85 lakh crore this fiscal, assuming a contingency buffer of around 6.5%. The RBI would have earned higher profits in FY26 through increased interest income on government bond holdings, especially as yields spiked and the central bank conducted large-scale open market operations (OMOs),” Gupta said.
She added that another major contributor to the higher surplus was the RBI’s large-scale dollar sales undertaken to defend the rupee.
In FY26, the RBI’s gross dollar sales stood at around $166 billion till February 2026, though it sold over $40 billion in March alone. This was lower than the $399 billion sold in FY25. The average dollar purchase cost was around Rs84 in FY26 compared with Rs82 in FY25.
However, Gupta does not expect the higher dividend to materially alter the government’s fiscal calculations.
“The Budget has already factored in Rs2.7 lakh crore from the RBI. Even if the payout is Rs10,000-20,000 crore higher, it will not significantly alter the fiscal deficit numbers,” she said, adding that it would be premature to conclude that the government’s fiscal targets are at risk.