Chennai

Forecasting in an age of innovation

Rohan Premkumar

The Meteorological Department, entrusted with the monitoring and surveillance of weather systems across India, has seen a wave of technological developments incorporated into its monitoring systems over the last few years.

According to Y E A Raj, Deputy Director General of Meteorology, Chennai, the last five years have seen tremendous technological developments in the department. Among the most notable development is the move towards a fully automated system of weather tracking and the availability of data and weather forecasts on the Internet.

As many as 1,500 weather stations in Southern India have been upgraded from traditional system to fully automatic facilities that have the capability to observe and monitor atmospheric conditions such as pressure, wind speed, wind direction and humidity. This has led to a more accurate weather forecasting and coordinated system which can relay data on a real-time basis to research centres and communities that rely on weather predictions.

“In India, rainfall, especially the monsoon cycle, is very important. Millions of farmers depend on the rains for agriculture. So, in this sense, an accurate system which can predict the onset of monsoon is of paramount importance,” said Raj.

Using Multi Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting, the department issues regular bulletins to every district of India on the prevailing weather conditions. This MME forecasting allows for effective weather predictions for up to seven days and this data is accessed by local institutions or bodies and relayed to farmers and agriculturalists in the region.

Improvements in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) using supercomputers to run simulations of data acquired from weather stations has also led to better short-term and long-term weather predictions.

Doppler radars, used to ascertain the velocity of objects by directing short bursts of radio waves in order to ascertain the wind speeds,  lead to better rainfall predictions.

“Though the Doppler radar can only monitor rainfall for up to 100 km from the coastline, it enables continuous 24-hour tracking of a storm system,” said Raj.

Cyclone warning dissemination systems, which are an integral part of the early-warning system, issue bulletins to communities threatened by ocean winds and storms. “These systems are used not only by people, but also by researchers to study storm and rainfall patterns. Almost all of our data, gathered from the over 5,000 stations across India is available to the public,” said S Balachandran, Director, Cyclone Warning Weather Centre.

The efficacy and usefulness of the data transmitted by the department is important to many, especially the fishing communities dotted along the East Coast. Ramkumaran, a fisherman from Thiruvallikeni, said, “We usually time our trips into the sea based on inputs from the weather department. For instance, if there is rainfall forecast, we wait out the storm and fish after it has passed, as the catch is usually better and the sea is calmer.”

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