Despite apprehension of a staged presidential election in Iran with candidates picked by a small, opaque panel loyal to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, reformist Masoud Pezeshkian won the runoff by an impressive margin of 2.8 crore votes. At 49.8 percent, the polling percentage, too, was 10 points higher than in the first round, indicating people’s yearning for a moderate regime.
The turnout in the first phase included as many as 10 lakh invalid votes, often seen by analysts as an indication of voter disillusionment. That Pezeshkian was allowed to contest in the first place—wannabe reformists were weeded out in the last presidential race in 2021—indicated Khamenei was aware of the national pulse and let it find expression as a safety valve, since the remote control was anyway in his hands. National unrest had peaked under the watch of hardliner Ebrahim Raisi, who had won in 2021. His death in a helicopter crash last May forced the snap election.
Pezeshkian knows he will have little say in foreign policy to begin with, as it is controlled by Khamenei. So, arming Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon, Hamas in Israel and Houthis in Yemen to wage a proxy war for Shia supremacy may continue. Iran is also supplying drones to Russia to fight Ukraine. Besides, the country has eased ties with Saudi Arabia and China.
Yet, the president-elect wants to re-engage with the West as Iranian inflation is at a whopping 40 per cent because of the crippling sanctions. He has the support of pragmatic, seasoned politicians like former foreign minister Javad Zarif, who successfully negotiated the nuclear deal with US President Barack Obama’s regime in 2015. However, his diplomatic outreach could flounder if Donald Trump returns as president. As for India, ties are expected to flourish seamlessly, with infrastructure projects like the Chabahar port continuing unimpeded.
The visible change would be at home, where the despicable hijab policing will definitely be eased, letting women choose their attire. Similarly, internet clampdown could be relaxed to allow some freedom of expression. Police repression against protesters may also end. However, Pezeshkian’s ability to quickly release political prisoners would test his clout. The president-elect is a cardiac surgeon by training. Whether he can ease the stress on the nation’s heart by removing debilitating blocks in its arteries and making it more humane remains to be seen.