Cyclone Dana certainly gave Odisha a scare, leaving about 36 lakh people affected and battering kharif crops over 2.71 lakh acres in five districts along its trail. Official records say there was no loss of life. For a perspective, cyclone Fani, which pummelled the state just over five years back, was stronger in intensity and bigger in its socioeconomic cost. Over 1.65 crore people were hit by the May 2019 storm that had been categorised an ‘extremely severe cyclone’ and its damage was pegged at over Rs 29,000 crore. For a state that has a painful history of natural calamities, thankfully, Dana was not the beast it was projected to be.
But it must be noted that any natural disaster needs effective management—and the Mohan Majhi government pulled out all the stops to minimise this cyclone’s impact. It evacuated over 8 lakh people to shelters before the storm and deployed all its resources. Ministers were sent to vulnerable districts to monitor the rescue, relief and restoration efforts, while MLAs and officers were asked to camp there and coordinate support. Majhi himself led from the front as he remained on watch 24x7 till the danger passed.
A calamity can test the efficacy of an administration. By that measure, the four-month-old BJP government was spot on after achieving its goal of ‘zero casualty’. However, it could be accused of over-preparedness, because there was hardly any need to cancel 200-odd trains three days in advance and shut down educational institutions in 14 districts when the storm was headed to the north coastal districts.
Much of it should be attributed to the forecast by the India Meteorological Department that led to panic. Precision in forecast helps in efficient disaster management, but the National Weather Office was clearly off the mark this time. Its advisories and forecast lacked clarity and was marked by a hesitation to pinpoint the areas to be affected by Dana. It seemed to be bound by the pressure of failure that reflected in its prediction of a longer-than-200-km landfall zone from Puri to Sagar Island. This led the state to stretch its mitigation apparatus. Weather forecasting can hardly be 100 percent accurate; but the IMD would do well to shed its orthodox mindset.