By all indications, voters came out in numbers on Thursday to showcase India’s participative democracy at its best. However, the high voting percentages should not be taken as a dipstick test to establish pro- or anti-incumbency sentiments in Kerala, Assam or Puducherry. Even in the best of times, interpreting mandates based on turnouts can be problematic. Add into the mix the electoral roll changes made by special intensive revisions and the task becomes even more difficult. The weeding out of absent, shifted, dead and duplicate voters by the SIRs does partially explain the singlephase elections’ higher turnouts. But the roll revision also makes the effort to draw conclusions more complicated. Factoring in other issues affecting the voters’ intent could be fraught as well. For example, the central government timed the special Parliament session to amend the women’s reservation Bill in the middle of this month’s polling seemingly to derive maximum electoral mileage while skirting scrutiny under the model code of conduct. But gauging its impact would be hazardous.
At the time of going to press, Kerala—at 78.27 percent— had recorded its fourth-best turnout, sharply higher than the 2021 Assembly polls’ 74.06 percent. The LDF led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan is seeking a third consecutive term, while the Congress-led UDF hopes to benefi t from the anti-incumbency factor. The BJP is the third pole trying to emerge as a signifi cant player in the state. In Assam, the turnout was 85.51 percent, compared to 82.42 percent in 2021 and 84.72 percent in 2016. With the BJP aspiring to retain the mandate for the third consecutive time, Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the opposition Congress were upbeat after what both sides called unprecedented polling on a rain-soaked day. Participation at many polling booths crossed 95 percent. Meanwhile, Puducherry registered its highest-ever turnout of 89.87 percent, up from 82.2 percent in 2021 and beyond the previous highest of 85.57 percent in 2011. In 2016, the NDA had wrested power in the Union territory and installed N Rangasamy as Chief Minister.
Now begins the long wait for the three regions that voted on the fi rst day of this three-week-long schedule. Whether the people opted for continuity or change will be revealed only on May 4, the counting day.