As El Niño conditions strengthen in the Pacific, India’s monsoon is showing signs of strain across a dozen states. By mid-June, rainfall is about 35 percent below the normal nationwide, and central India faces a sharp 63 percent shortfall. The monsoon’s advance has stalled across much of Maharashtra, while Mumbai is closely monitoring its reservoir levels as the supplies are expected to last only around 45 days if the conditions persist. In the south, Tamil Nadu farmers are unsure about planting Kuruvai rice because dam storage is low, while reduced Cauvery flows at the Karnataka border are unsettling others. The weather office has stated that early-June deficits do not decide the whole season, but there is now a nearly 60 percent chance of a poor monsoon, which is a serious worry for the whole nation.
The next 6-8 weeks will be crucial. The Centre is working with states to launch crop-specific backup plans, but execution must be on a war footing. Short-duration, drought-resistant seeds must reach vulnerable districts quickly, along with clear advice for farmers on what to plant, when. At the same time, MGNREGA funds should go towards cleaning tanks, repairing canals and improving groundwater recharging before the monsoon reaches its peak. More than just issuing warnings, city administrations should focus on finding leaks, managing demand and planning for emergency water supplies.
Still, emergency actions can only provide short-term relief. India’s main weakness is its heavy reliance on the short monsoon season. In the next few years, a national task force should focus on water budgeting at the district level, expanding micro-irrigation and encouraging farmers in dry areas to grow less water-intensive crops. Groundwater use in overdrawn areas needs stricter rules, and cities and industries should be required to treat and reuse wastewater at scale.
As climate change intensifies, the real long-term fix would be to restore neglected water systems. In 2023, the government’s first water-body census counted over 2.4 million lakes, tanks and ponds; but many are still encroached, polluted or neglected. Restoring these over the next decade would create a storage network and help manage droughts. Along with watershed development, recharging of aquifers and widespread rainwater harvesting, this would make the country much more resilient. But for now, the top priorities are protecting crops, saving water and keeping food inflation in check.