Israel’s election deadlock raises a pressing question: how far will Benjamin Netanyahu go to stay in power this time? With about 86 percent of the election-day ballots counted by Wednesday evening, Netanyahu’s bloc was projected to win 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, the Jewish opposition 48 and the Arab parties 19. Although the opposition is on course to collectively bag 67 seats, forming a government hinges on Jewish parties overcoming resistance to Arab support. Netanyahu has repeatedly used opposition divisions to retain power for a total of almost two decades in a State formed 78 years ago. Can his rivals unite, or will his canny survival tactics prevail once more? President Isaac Herzog’s appeal to approach coalition negotiations with “an open mind” acknowledged substantial gaps in political trust.
Netanyahu has repeatedly demonstrated exceptional shrewdness to assemble unlikely combinations of partners, exploit divisions and turn setbacks into opportunities. In a country driven farther right on the political spectrum, his record is not one of ideological consistency so much as expedient flexibility. His 2021 ouster, after more than 12 years in office, appeared to expose the limits of such tactics. Yet, his personal political survival and the implications of his ongoing legal troubles over alleged corruption have become increasingly synonymous. Following his 2022 victory, Netanyahu joined hands with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties whose agendas helped curtail the Supreme Court’s powers.
The Arab parties’ historic showing could prove decisive this time if only their participation in governance is deemed broadly acceptable. The opposition’s desperation to dislodge Netanyahu may create opportunities, but numerical leverage alone cannot overcome ideological resistance. The final count and Herzog’s consultations will determine whether a compromise is possible or another round of instability beckons.
Meanwhile, the sand is shifting in the region. Monday’s meeting in Tehran between Iranian leaders and senior Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani representatives underscored their search for a diplomatic solution to a conflict brought upon them by Israel and the US. Their commitment to talks reflected a shared interest in containing escalation even amid profound strategic differences.
The crucial question is no longer whether Netanyahu will politically survive. It is whether any coalition that comes to power in Israel can restore the country’s democratic confidence, address the consequences of war and give Israel a credible ramp off a conflict the world does not want to pay for.