THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The assembly election has set the stage for a crucial political test in the state, with the central question being whether the ‘performance vote’ for sitting MLAs can overweigh the anti-incumbency generated by a decade-long reign in power.
At the heart of the matter lies a double-barrelled question: can the track record of sitting MLAs secure voter support, and can a decade in opposition, marked by consistent performance inside and outside the assembly, translate into a mandate for change?
Both the ruling LDF and the opposition UDF face a high-stakes contest, with the outcome expected to have decisive bearing on the political future of their principal constituents, the CPM and the Congress respectively. Seeking to recover from the setback suffered in the recent local body elections, the CPM has fielded 56 sitting MLAs, signalling a calculated strategy to leverage individual track records in what is widely expected to be a closely fought election. Its chief ally, the CPI, has retained eight sitting MLAs.
Meanwhile, the Congress, which was chief beneficiary of the switch in local body election fortunes, has fielded 18 of its 21 sitting MLAs. As for the the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), nine of its current 15 MLAs are contesting this time. Unlike the left front, the UDF is also betting on the performance the sitting MLAs performances.
CPM leaders believe that the emphasis on constituency level performance could help offset broader anti-incumbency sentiment and provide a critical edge in tight races. Despite agreeing that it is a good political strategy, observers remain sceptical, noting that such claims may not fully align with Kerala’s electoral patterns.
“In assembly elections, voters tend to prioritise the performance of the incumbent government and the policies of political parties,” said political commentator George Podippara, adding that while there are signs of shift towards performance-based voting, broader trends still matter.
Kerala’s electorate has traditionally demonstrated a strong anti-incumbency sentiment with power alternating between the LDF and the UDF in nearly every election cycle.
Observers argue that relying solely on the performance of sitting MLAs would not be sufficient for the LDF to retain power for a third consecutive term. They also noted that many CPM MLAs seeking second and third terms also face anti-incumbency at the constituency level. “In the 2021 election, multiple factors worked in favour of the LDF, including consolidation of minority votes, internal issues within the Congress and community balance,” Sreekumar Manayil, another commentator, said.
Congress leaders, however, see nothing unnatural in fielding sitting MLAs. “Many of our MLAs have been contesting from one constituency continuously. If not for unforeseen developments in Palakkad, Tripunithura and Perumbavoor, all our sitting MLAs would have been in the fray,” a KPCC office-bearer said.
However, unlike League MLAs, Congress MLAs face anti-incumbency pressures, with opponents accusing them of neglecting development issues, a charge they deny.