Almost coinciding with the 19-km intrusion of Chinese forces into the Depsang Bulge area of Ladakh, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe issued a stark warning to China as tensions between Japan and China grew over provocative Chinese naval manoeuvres in territorial waters surrounding the disputed Senkaku Islands. Abe warned that Japan would block any Chinese attempt to land on the Islands, adding: “I have ordered the authorities to respond decisively to any attempt to enter territorial waters and land on the Islands.” China has used force to enforce territorial claims on neighbouring Vietnam and the Philippines. It has made unprecedented territorial claims on Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Brunei and Malaysia. It has also used a combination of intimidation and economic clout to divide ASEAN and prevent the emergence of a united opposition to its territorial claims.
Government spokesmen in New Delhi have described the Chinese incursion as being no different from the hundreds of incursions by Chinese forces in the past into areas which China claimed was on its side of the ‘Line of Actual Control’ (LAC). The reality is, however, that in this instance, the Chinese have not immediately returned to their bases, as in the past. Moreover, such intrusions have been deliberately facilitated by China’s refusal to exchange maps with India spelling out clearly where, in its view, the LAC lies. The areas China is intruding into are clearly on the Indian side, in terms the Macdonald- McCartney proposals, which China implicitly endorsed in 1899. The Ladakh-China border was then determined as lying along the Karakoram Mountains up to the Indus River Watershed. India’s delineation of the LAC broadly depicts the Macdonald-McCartney Line.
The last time such an intrusion where the Chinese troops established a physical presence was in 1986, when they intruded into Sumdorong Chu in Arunachal Pradesh. When diplomatic protests proved of no avail, then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi approved a large army deployment, which resulted in the intruding Chinese troops facing Indian forces deployed on surrounding hills. India did not relent despite a warning that China would “teach India a lesson”. Relations improved after Rajiv visited China in 1988 and met a beaming Deng Xiaoping. A number of confidence building measures to maintain peace and tranquillity of the border were subsequently concluded between India and China, leading to substantial de-escalation by 1995.
India should realise it is dealing with an assertive China prepared to use force to overawe others, across its maritime and land borders, to enforce its insatiable territorial claims. China has obviously noted that it is dealing with a government in Delhi that is under siege domestically, amid an economic downturn. It would also have noted that given the downturn, India’s plans to modernise its armed forces and raise a strike Corps on eastern borders are being put on the backburner. China is simultaneously stepping up military, nuclear and maritime cooperation with Pakistan and encouraging and instigating neighbours like Maldives, Nepal and Bhutan to erode Indian influence.
There appears little realisation in South Block that it is widely perceived as being unable to handle challenges ranging from terrorism sponsored by Pakistan and being snubbed by Maldives, to dealing with an assertive China, which has no qualms in blocking India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group and undermining its influence across Asia. This is not to suggest that India needs to get adventurist in dealing with its arrogant northern neighbour, which appears intoxicated by its growing economic power and military might. It is now crucial to increasingly make common cause with countries like Japan and Vietnam and by extending military cooperation to eastern neighbours, akin to what China is prepared to do in our South Asian neighbourhood. Moreover, China’s intrusions can also be countered by well-planned and calibrated Indian moves along the border into areas of concern for China.
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