NEW DELHI: A cyclone is likely to develop in the next 3-4 days as favourable ocean and atmospheric conditions have been evolving over the south Bay of Bengal, experts said.
The sea surface temperature (SST) is warmer than normal by 2–3°C and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) – an eastward travelling band of clouds -- is reaching the south Bay of Bengal providing favourable conditions.
Climate experts say persistently high SST provides constant supply of heat and moisture, essential for cyclone formation and MJO provides a rotational trigger for the cyclones to happen.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed the formation of a low pressure area on May 22 but is yet to declare formation of a cyclone. “A low pressure area is likely to form over southwest Bay of Bengal around May 22 which may form a depression by May 24,” the IMD said.
“It may evolve as a cyclone ‘Remal’ moving to the east coast,” said a senior scientist at IMD. However, advancing southwest monsoon wind may come as a restricting factor. “If that’s the case, this will end up as a monsoon depression bringing rains, otherwise, it could develop into a weak cyclone of a short duration,” said Dr Roxy Koll, a climate scientist and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lead author.
Moreover, Vineet Kumar, research scientist at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, who tracks ocean-cyclone activity said the way monsoon winds are strengthening in Bay, a major cyclone is unlikely. “A depression will surely form, further intensification remains uncertain,” said Kumar. Southwest monsoon has advanced into some parts of Maldives & Comorin area and some parts of aouth Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands and south Andaman Sea as of May 19. Southwest monsoon is nearly a week ahead of the ideal schedule, IMD said.
Further, IMD also warned of a low to moderate flashfloods risk over southern parts of Kerala and Mahe and southern Tamil Nadu districts due to existing cyclonic circulation-induced heavy rainfall occurrence in next 24 hours. IMD has also stated that heat wave to severe heat wave conditions are likely to continue over plains of northwest India, east & central India in next five days.