NEW DELHI: India will experience higher-than-average rainfall during the upcoming southwest monsoon season, boosting optimism for a strong agricultural yield in the predominantly farming-driven economy, said IMD on April 15.
The southwest monsoon season spans from June 1 to September 30.
In its long-range monsoon forecast, the India Meteorological Department indicated that much of Tamil Nadu and the northeastern states may experience below-average rainfall, whereas regions like Marathwada and neighbouring areas of Telangana—usually short on rain—are expected to receive above-normal precipitation.
“India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September), with cumulative rainfall estimated at 105 per cent (with a model error of 5 per cent) of the long-period average of 87 cm,” M Ravichandran, secretary in the Earth Sciences Ministry, told a press conference here.
Favourable conditions for a normal monsoon this year include neutral El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole patterns, along with decreased snow cover across Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere.
Some regions, including parts of Jammu and Kashmir, Ladakh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, and the northeastern states, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall during the monsoon season.
In contrast, normal to above-normal rainfall is anticipated across much of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal—states that make up India’s core monsoon zone, where agriculture largely depends on seasonal rains.
The monsoon plays a vital role in India's agriculture sector, which sustains the livelihoods of approximately 42.3% of the population and accounts for 18.2% of the nation’s GDP. Beyond farming, monsoon rains are essential for refilling reservoirs that supply drinking water and support power generation across the country.
According to the IMD, there is an 89% overall likelihood that the southwest monsoon will bring normal to above-normal rainfall this year. Within that, there's a 59% probability of above-normal rainfall and a 30% chance of normal rainfall. The odds of below-normal to deficient rainfall stand at just 11%. The long-period average for monsoon-season rainfall (June to September), calculated from 1971 to 2020 data, is 87 centimetres (870 millimetres).
“Currently, neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. Many weather models indicate that these neutral ENSO conditions are expected to continue during the monsoon season,” said Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology at the IMD.
El Niño, which refers to the warming of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is associated with a weakening of the Indian monsoon, while La Niña, characterised by the cooling of the same ocean, typically brings abundant monsoon rains to India.
Another important factor influencing the monsoon is the snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly over Eurasia.
“The snow cover in these regions during January to March 2025 was observed to be below normal, which is a positive sign for a normal monsoon,” said Ravichandran.
Last year’s forecast of above-normal monsoon rainfall was spot on, with the season concluding at 108% of the long-period average. Over the past seven years, IMD’s monsoon predictions have consistently shown a positive deviation, often underestimating the actual rainfall. In several instances, forecasts of normal rainfall have culminated in above-normal outcomes by the end of the season.